Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ? YES

[KirkbyStag2]

I'm predicting Stags will need 81 points to finish in the TOP 3.

Current Table
PLD...W...D...L...PTS...PPG
.39...20..13..6....73...1.87

Required for 81 points
PLD...W...D...L...PTS...PPG
..7....2....2...3....8....1.14
..7....1....5...1....8....1.14

Stags current PPG 1.87 would total 86 points over a season.

On course to be CHAMPIONS

Stags had 64 points after 39 games last season, so currently +9.

Stags points after 39 games in previous promotion seasons,
2001/02....69.....(finished 79)
1991/92....70.....(finished 77, only 42 games)
1985/86....72.....(finished 81)

Latest Title odds
Stags.........1/1
Stockport...11/10
Wrexham....6/1

MK Dons...150/1
Barrow.....150/1
Crewe......250/1

If all teams continued with their current PPG the table would finish as,
...................Points
1) Stags.........86
2) Stockport...86
3) Wrexham...83
--------------------
4) Barrow.......77
5) Crewe........77
6) MK Dons....77
7) Crawley......71
-------------------
8) Gillingham..68
9) Walsall.......68

If all teams continued with their current "FORM" PPG (Last 6/7/8 games) the table would finish as,
...................Points
1) Stags.........86
2) Stockport...81
3) Wrexham...81
-------------------
4) Crawley......78
5) MK Dons.....76
6) Barrow.......75
7) Crewe........73
-------------------
8) Walsall.......73

Top of the League
Top Goalscorers
Best Defence
Best Away team

Stags have the most difficult run-in, with away games at,
Wrexham, MK Dons & Barrow.

To beat the predicted 81 points, due to Stags superior goal difference, other teams would most probable need 82 points.

This is what the other teams need to get to 82 points,

Stockport WIN 3 draw 2 lose 3
To play, Wrexham A.

Wrexham WIN 4/7 or win 3 draw 3 lose 1
To play, Stags H, Crewe A, Stockport H.

MK Dons WIN 5/6
To play, Stags H.

Crewe WIN 5 draw 2 lose 0 (zero)
To play, Wrexham H.

Barrow WIN 6/8 or win 5 draw 3 lose 0 (zero)
To play, Stags H.

[MTFCMusings]

7 points needed to guarantee the play-offs, 15 needed for autos.

Only 12 teams can mathematically finish above us now. That may reduce to 8 depending on the next round of results.

[Amberheart]

7 points needed to guarantee the play-offs, 15 needed for autos.

Only 12 teams can mathematically finish above us now. That may reduce to 8 depending on the next round of results.

So win all our home games & draw all our away games ?

[KirkbyStag2]

Bookies AUTOMATIC Promotion Odds,

Stockport..1/50
Stags........1/33
Wrexham...1/6

MK Dons....4/1
Barrow......11/2
Crewe.......13/2

Current TOP 3 looking likely to reach 81+ points, whereas the next 3 teams need a really good run of form to reach 81+ points.

[KirkbyStag2]

Bookies AUTOMATIC Promotion Odds,

Stockport..1/50
Stags........1/33
Wrexham...1/6

MK Dons....4/1
Barrow......11/2
Crewe.......13/2

Current TOP 3 looking likely to reach 81+ points, whereas the next 3 teams need a really good run of form to reach 81+ points.

MK Dons, Barrow & Crewe all require a PPG of over 2.00 from their remaining games to reach 81 points.

[pemill]

Obviously everyone is crunching the numbers so I've had a go too.

Based on the average points per game for the last 6 games x remaining games the top 3 will be;
Stags
Stockport
Wrexham

Based on the average points per game for the last 3 games x remaining games the top 3 will be;
Stockport
Stags
Wrexham

[Billy the fish]

Has anyone posted the run in of the top 4 without scrolling through every thread ?

[Bradders]

Assuming that we lose all the difficult (on paper) matches, we have 4 home games in April to find 2 or 3 wins. It's a great situation.

[Richard Cranium]

Has anyone posted the run in of the top 4 without scrolling through every thread ?

Stags - Wrexham A, Accrington H, Crawley H, FGR H, MK A, Gills H, Barrow A

Stockport - FGR A, Wimbledon H, Sutton A, Colchester A, Morecambe H, Notts A, Accrington H, Wrexham A

Wrexham - Mansfield H, Donny A, Colchester A, Crawley H, FGR H, Crewe A, Stockport H

MK - Walsall H, Notts A, FGR A, Mansfield H, Harrogate A, Sutton H.

[mattstag14]

I think 3 wins may well be enough.

[1970Stag]

I thought barrow had a good run in, but are we saying they are too far off it?

[Spiritater]

I think Barrow are destined for a play off place like MK

[Amberheart]

Has anyone posted the run in of the top 4 without scrolling through every thread ?

Stags - Wrexham A, Accrington H, Crawley H, FGR H, MK A, Gills H, Barrow A

Stockport - FGR A, Wimbledon H, Sutton A, Colchester A, Morecambe H, Notts A, Accrington H, Wrexham A

Wrexham - Mansfield H, Donny A, Colchester A, Crawley H, FGR H, Crewe A, Stockport H

MK - Walsall H, Notts A, FGR A, Mansfield H, Harrogate A, Sutton H.

I think Wrexham has a tougher run in
UTS !

[Billy the fish]

Has anyone posted the run in of the top 4 without scrolling through every thread ?

Stags - Wrexham A, Accrington H, Crawley H, FGR H, MK A, Gills H, Barrow A

Stockport - FGR A, Wimbledon H, Sutton A, Colchester A, Morecambe H, Notts A, Accrington H, Wrexham A

Wrexham - Mansfield H, Donny A, Colchester A, Crawley H, FGR H, Crewe A, Stockport H

MK - Walsall H, Notts A, FGR A, Mansfield H, Harrogate A, Sutton H.

Cheers for that , could change every match day by looking at that I agree think 3 wins will get us over the line ..

[James]

Think Stockport will put a bit of a run together now to secure the title, their fixtures are very favourable id say.

[lifestags]

Nerves are kicking in a bit now, we have some tough fixtures coming up. I’d snatch your hand off for a point at Wrexham.

[cassellswasmagic]

I would too, however, a win in either the Wrexham or MKD game and we will be going up. We need to go to both games in a ‘Bradford away’ mindset. It’s the games against those at the bottom end of the table that are tough to predict…they’re fighting for every ounce. Exciting, but nerve jangling end to the season!

[Stags Head Stags]

Nerves are kicking in a bit now, we have some tough fixtures coming up. I’d snatch your hand off for a point at Wrexham.

Not nervous in the slightest

Bookies still have us 1/50 to achieve promotion.

3 wins and a draw will do it IMO. A point Friday would be huge but it’s not the end of the world if we do lose.

As others have said the 3 home games against Accrington, Crawley & FGR are the ones.

[adamstag]

Whereas i wouldn’t want to try it out, i reckon 9 points would be enough from the remaining 7, which is the form we’re on in the last 5/6 games.

That would mean we’d be on 82 (in effect 83) which would mean MK need to win 5 of their last 6….

[Dan]

We need to go all out attack on Friday because they don't know how to handle it and their fans get on their backs really quickly.

[MTFCMusings]

Without taking into account teams playing each other and therefore not both being able to achieve maximum points, here is the maximum number of points each team who can mathematically still catch us can achieve.

Stockport 95
Mansfield 94
Wrexham 91
Barrow 88
Crewe 86
MK Dons 85
Crawley 83
Walsall 80
Gillingham 77
Wimbledon 76
Newport 76
Morecambe 75
Harrogate 75

7pts to guarantee play-offs with our GD
15pts to guarantee top 3
Title is out of our hands

We are currently on 73 points. This table obviously changes from game to game so I will keep updating.

Note the following :

Stockport and Wrexham cannot both achieve their maximum points
Stockport and Wimbledon cannot both achieve their maximum points
Stockport and Morecambe cannot both achieve their maximum points
Wrexham and Mansfield cannot both achieve their maximum points
Wrexham and Crewe cannot both achieve their maximum points
Wrexham and Crawley cannot both achieve their maximum points
MK Dons and Walsall cannot both achieve their maximum points
MK Dons and Mansfield cannot both achieve their maximum points
MK Dons and Harrogate cannot both achieve their maximum points
Crewe and Gillingham cannot both achieve their maximum points
Crewe and Morecambe cannot both achieve their maximum points
Barrow and Morecambe cannot both achieve their maximum points
Barrow and Gillingham cannot both achieve their maximum points
Barrow and Crawley cannot both achieve their maximum points
Barrow and Mansfield cannot both achieve their maximum points
Crawley and Newport cannot both achieve their maximum points
Crawley and Mansfield cannot both achieve their maximum points
Gillingham and Harrogate cannot both achieve their maximum points
Wimbledon and Harrogate cannot both achieve their maximum points
Wimbledon and Walsall cannot both achieve their maximum points

[pemill]

When you get to Easter you know you are the sharp end of the season, 2 games in 4 days, come Monday 5pm we'll have a much better idea what the others fighting for the play-offs have in their dressing rooms.

[Amberheart]

15 points needed for top 3 ? So that’s win all our home games & draw all our away games?!

[MTFCMusings]

15 points needed for top 3 ? So that’s win all our home games & draw all our away games?!

It won't end up being that many, but that would guarantee it regardless of what others do.

[adamstag]

15 points needed for top 3 ? So that’s win all our home games & draw all our away games?!

The maximum MK can get is 85, in effect 84 with goal difference.

11 is the very highest amount we’d need to go up from the 7 remaining, which would be at 1.57 points a game.

Even if we won 3 and lost 4 of the last 7 games, MK would still need to stay unbeaten all season to match us.