Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ? YES

[MTFCMusings]

Yeah it’s mostly just the bookies odds converted into percentages. 1/33 = 97%

[Amber Ad]

Keep the faith people, we'll do it. Even after today, think we've had our blip in March as other teams had earlier and we'll get back to winning ways in April and see it out.
COYS!!

[MTFCMusings]

I’m not sure if this is good news or not, but only 4pts needed now to guarantee the play-offs.

[Amber Andy]

Yes.

[MTFC Man]

Barrow projected to finish 4th with 79 points, we’ve already got 73. Obviously there’s no guarantee that fourth doesn’t pick up more than 79, but we’re in a fabulous position that everyone would’ve taken at the start of the season. I feel now Stockport have won 2 in a row, and are 1 point and a game in hand at the the top, they will probably go on to win the league. Which is disappointing but Top 3 was always the aim. But it’s definitely not over yet.

[diablo]

Wrexham v Stockport will probably decide the champion spot
3rd place could be MK Dons or Barrow or Stags

we are the worst form team of the top 5 , we need to win all our home games, but we are not playing well at the moment and injuries are starting to mount again..

The managers head was down today....the positives are at least a playoff place...C'mon lads dig deep...you can do it...Barrow away could well be the deciding factor for promotion

[Kernow]

Starting to look a familiar fail.

[Cleveland_Stag]

I really think MK Dons might win all their remaining games. They’ve got:

Notts County (a)
Forest Green (a)
Mansfield (h)
Harrogate (a)
Sutton (h)

Bar us, that’s a very easy run-in for them. Really can’t see us turning up at their place either to be honest. Need to win these next three games at home.

[Showaddywaddy]

Just to try and inject a bit of fact based positivity:

We remain 2nd in the league table with just 6 games to play.

We are just one point behind the league leaders (albeit having played a game more).

We are currently 3 points clear of 4th place with a game in hand and a vastly superior goal difference.

Right now 22 sides in the league would gladly swap places with us.

The next 3 games are all at Field Mill.

We are a very different side and squad to those that have failed to get the job done in past seasons.

[KirkbyStag2]

I'm predicting Stags will need 81 points to finish in the TOP 3.

Current Table
PLD...W...D...L...PTS...PPG
.40...20..13..7....73...1.825

Required for 81 points
PLD...W...D...L...PTS...PPG
..6....2....2...2....8....1.33
..6....1....5...0....8....1.33

Stags current PPG 1.825 would total 84 points over a season.

On course for TOP 3.

Stags had 65 points after 40 games last season, so currently +8.

Stags points after 40 games in previous promotion seasons,
2001/02....70.....(finished 79)
1991/92....73.....(finished 77, only 42 games)
1985/86....72.....(finished 81)

Latest Title odds
Stockport....4/6
Stags.........9/4
Wrexham....4/1

Barrow.....150/1
MK Dons...200/1
Crewe......750/1

If all teams continued with their current PPG the table would finish as,
...................Points
1) Stockport...87
2) Stags.........84
3) Wrexham...84
--------------------
4) Barrow.......79
5) MK Dons....79
6) Crewe........76
7) Crawley......70
-------------------
8) Gillingham..68

If all teams continued with their current "FORM" PPG (Last 5/6/7 games) the table would finish as,
...................Points
1) Stockport...87
2) Wrexham...86
3) Barrow.......81
-------------------
4) Stags.........80
5) MK Dons.....79
6) Crawley......72
7) Crewe........71
-------------------
8) Wimbledon..67

Top Goalscorers
Best Defence
Best Away team

To beat the predicted 81 points, due to Stags superior goal difference, other teams would most probable need 82 points.

This is what the other teams need to get to 82 points,

Stockport WIN 2 draw 2 lose 3
To play, Wrexham A.

Wrexham WIN 3/6 or win 2 draw 3 lose 1
To play, Crewe A, Stockport H.

MK Dons WIN 4/5
To play, Stags H.

Barrow WIN 5/7
To play, Stags H.

Crewe WIN 5 draw 1 lose 0 (zero)
To play, Wrexham H.

Based on current form, it's looking likely that both Stockport & Wrexham will reach 81+ points, but Stags now need an upturn in results to reach 81 points.

In the last 6 games Stags have only got 7 points (W2 D1 L3).

Really need 3 points v Accrington on Monday, otherwise it could quickly look like Stags could do another Flitcroft

[Stags Head Stags]

That 97% chance of automatic promotion is barmy

Still a lot of football to play

Backed up by the bookies if you look at the odds

We are 14/1 to finish in the play offs.

This is now into 17/2

[Curry 9 Brace 7]

We have got 4 home games and only 2 away. Surely we can't mess this up.

[KirkbyStag2]

Since Stags away win at Stockport on New Years Day,

The current Top 6 only,

.................PPG
MK Dons.....1.82
Stockport....1.77
Crewe.........1.67
Wrexham....1.60
Barrow.......1.57
Stags.........1.50

Only MK Dons & Stockport on form you would expect from a top 3 team.

Stags PPG 1.50 (last 16 games) would total only 69 points over a season, and wouldn't usually get a play-off place.

On a positive note, Stags still in a good position and its all about the next 6 games, 4 at Field Mill.

C'Mon you Stags

[Amber Andy]

Both Stockport and Wrexham have to go to Colchester. I can see them both dropping points. There will be more twists and turns. I think we will finish top three.

[BarnsleyStag]

After having some time to reflect on yesterday’s game, I’m feeling more positive. Would we have taken this position if we were offered it at the start of the season? Yes. We are in a better position than anyone else in the league apart from Stockport. Everyone is going to drop points in the run in, and yesterday it was our turn.

Three massive home games coming up now, three wins needed. If we beat Accrington, Crawley, and Forest Green at home, a draw at MK Dons would be enough to take us up. COYS

[BarnsleyStag]

Having said the above, for balance, it feels like the Flitcroft season in so many ways. One defeat in the first half of the season, top three pretty much throughout, underwhelming January business, then a series of defeats after Christmas leaving us dropping into the play offs at the last minute.

[Richard Cranium]

‘A draw at MK Dons’

A sentence that will give me PTSD forever

[stagsfan6493]

Feels a tough ask now especially if we have to play Macca at LB

[BarnsleyStag]

‘A draw at MK Dons’

A sentence that will give me PTSD forever

Same here. Would be nice to do it at their place though after 2019.

[MTFCMusings]

12pts now guarantees promotion.

[Stags Head Stags]

9/10 should do it.

[stagshead]

Are you not overlooking Barrow who can get 85 points or is it just me.

[Spiritater]

12pts now guarantees promotion.

10 does really, they have to go goal crazy to overhaul our GD

[BH_Stag]

MK remaining fixtures;

FGR away
Mansfield Home
Harrogate away
Sutton Home

If they could just lose 1 game, and Barrow fail to get 14 points from 18 available, then just 7 points from 18 would probably see us promoted on GD.

You’d expect a decent points haul from MK there but fingers crossed we either get a favour from somebody or we can do the job ourselves.

[MTFCMusings]

Yes, as people have pointed out, Barrow can get to 85, therefore 12 points guarantees it, but as others have said it probably won’t need that many.