by Marky Mark » Wed Feb 22, 2023 1:35 pm
I know it's obvious but it's all about points and what we do from now on. Going by Kirkby Stags stats, he predicts 81 to maybe go up, but you'd expect to go up with 85, anything less than 81 is play offs. We need 33 points from 15 games for 85. Our next 5 games will tell us everything: they are against clubs who all have a higher points per game than any of our last 10 opponents.
Leyton Orient: 70 points, promoted, all bar the shouting
Stevenage: 57 points, 16 games remaining. 85 means winning probably 8 of those 16
Carlisle: 55 points, 14 games remaining. 85 means winning maybe 9 of 14
Stockport: 54 points, 14 games remaining. Same as Carlisle
Northampton and Us: 52 points, 15 games remaining, we probably need 10 wins from 15 games, 9 at a push as long as we dont lose many.
I think Salford probably have too much to do with being 3 points further behind and having played a game more, and Bradford will have to win around 11 from 16
Beating Stevenage at home is about as big as it gets, and not losing away at Stockport and Northampton - those 4 days in mid-March when we play those 2 will be make or break. I think if we lose any of those games then it's play-offs.
We've got the slightly easier run-in of all those in 2nd to 8th (based on opponents points per games PPG). Carlisle have got the toughest run-in.
Stevenage: 1.30 average of remaining opponents PPG (1.16 average of home opponents away PPG/1.44 average of away opponents home PPG) - Salford, Doncaster at home - Carlisle, Northampton, Mansfield away
Carlisle: 1.59 (1.42/1.73) - Stevenage, Stockport, Northampton at home - Leyton Orient, Bradford, Sutton away. 6 of the top 10
Stockport: 1.42 (1.11/1.74) - Mansfield, Salford, Doncaster at home - Leyton Orient, Carlisle, Sutton away. 6 of the top 10
Northampton: 1.28 (1.09/1.45) - Stevenage, Mansfield, Bradford at home - Carlisle, Sutton, Doncaster away. 6 of the top 10
Mansfield: 1.27 (1.12/1.43) - Leyton Orient, Stevenage, Salford, Sutton at home - Stockport, Northampton away. 6 of the top 10
Salford: 1.49 (1.09/1.80) - Leyton Orient, Doncaster at home - Stevenage, Carlisle, Stockport, Mansfield away. 6 of the top 10
Bradford: 1.28 (1.14/1.39) - Leyton Orient, Carlisle, Sutton at home - Northampton, Doncaster away. 5 of the top 10.
"Football is a game of opinions, and very little knowledge"