THE PROBABILITY OF RELEGATION


by Martin Shaw and Svante Bernhard
For Mansfield to be relegated, the following results ALL have to happen: Mansfield to lose the last 2 games. Boston to win their next game. Wrexham to win their next 2 games (including Tuesday night away to Shrewsbury). Boston to win at Wrexham in final game. Accrington to win 1 and draw 1 of their last 2 games. Macclesfield to win 1 and draw 1 of their last 3 games. Note that Bury's results are irrelevant, since we assume that they beat Mansfield and hence overtake us. If we assign some conservative probablities to these: Mansfield to lose the last 2 games  let's say this is certain (!), therefore a probability of 1 Boston to win their next game  let's say a probability of 0.5 Wrexham to win their next 2 games  let's say a probability of 0.5 for each game, therefore an overall probability of 0.25 Boston to win at Wrexham in final game  let's say a probability of 0.75 Accrington to win 1 and draw 1 of their last 2 games  let's say a probability of 0.5 Macclesfield to win 1 and draw 1 of their last 3 games  let's say a probability of 0.66 These probabilities we would consider to be conservative. All the above have to happen for Mansfield to be relegated and hence a conservative probability of Mansfield being relegated is 0.03 (ie 3%) 
Latest  April 2007