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Archived News from April 2007

THE PROBABILITY OF RELEGATION
22nd April 2007 12:55


by Martin Shaw and Svante Bernhard

For Mansfield to be relegated, the following results ALL have to happen:

Mansfield to lose the last 2 games.
Boston to win their next game.
Wrexham to win their next 2 games (including Tuesday night away to Shrewsbury).
Boston to win at Wrexham in final game.
Accrington to win 1 and draw 1 of their last 2 games.
Macclesfield to win 1 and draw 1 of their last 3 games.
Note that Bury's results are irrelevant, since we assume that they beat Mansfield and hence overtake us.

If we assign some conservative probablities to these:
Mansfield to lose the last 2 games - let's say this is certain (!), therefore a probability of 1
Boston to win their next game - let's say a probability of 0.5
Wrexham to win their next 2 games - let's say a probability of 0.5 for each game, therefore an overall probability of 0.25
Boston to win at Wrexham in final game - let's say a probability of 0.75
Accrington to win 1 and draw 1 of their last 2 games - let's say a probability of 0.5
Macclesfield to win 1 and draw 1 of their last 3 games - let's say a probability of 0.66

These probabilities we would consider to be conservative.
All the above have to happen for Mansfield to be relegated and hence a conservative probability of Mansfield being relegated is 0.03 (ie 3%)



 

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