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Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby Chadman » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:34 pm

Here is how Dempster's first nine games compares with other Stags bosses and where those starts took them in the end . . .

https://www.chad.co.uk/sport/football/h ... -1-9992414
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby NorthLondonStag » Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:22 pm

Interesting. And which shows it’s all a bit random as to whether your first few games correlate with whether the manager’s tenure is considered a success.
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:40 pm

It might be a better comparison to look at the first nine games of the season in our successful seasons.
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby arsene wengers coat » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:11 pm

2 wins from 9. Not good enough with our squad, despite injuries and suspensions.
You've got to go there and come back, to know where you've been.
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:13 pm

Adopting 3 points for a win for first 9 league games

1972-1973 (Division 4 - 6th): W8 D1 L0 - 25 Points
1974-1975 (Division 4 Champions): W5 D3 L1 - 18 Points
1976-1977 (Division 3 Champions): W5 D1 L3 - 16 Points
1985-1986 (Division 4 Promoted): W5 D3 L1 - 16 Points
1991-1992 (Division 4 Promoted): W6 D2 L2 -20 Points
1994-1995 (Division 4 Play Offs): W3 D2 L4 - 11 Points
2001-2002 (Division 4 Promoted): W4 D4 L1 - 16 Points
2003-2004 (Division 4 Play Offs): W4 D2 L3 - 14 Points
2011-2012 (Conference Premier Play Offs): W5 D3 L1 - 18 Points
2012-2013 (Conference Premier Champions): W5 D0 L4 - 15 Points

2019-2020: W2 D3 L2 - 9 Points

2 wins against Crawley and Cambridge and we are just about on track
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby oldweststander » Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:09 am

Hopefully two wins but honestly cannot see it.

Probably have 10 behind the ball at Crawley, scared to give a goal away.
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby Sweden Stag » Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:47 am

Tippy Tappy Football wrote:Adopting 3 points for a win for first 9 league games

1972-1973 (Division 4 - 6th): W8 D1 L0 - 25 Points
1974-1975 (Division 4 Champions): W5 D3 L1 - 18 Points
1976-1977 (Division 3 Champions): W5 D1 L3 - 16 Points
1985-1986 (Division 4 Promoted): W5 D3 L1 - 16 Points
1991-1992 (Division 4 Promoted): W6 D2 L2 -20 Points
1994-1995 (Division 4 Play Offs): W3 D2 L4 - 11 Points
2001-2002 (Division 4 Promoted): W4 D4 L1 - 16 Points
2003-2004 (Division 4 Play Offs): W4 D2 L3 - 14 Points
2011-2012 (Conference Premier Play Offs): W5 D3 L1 - 18 Points
2012-2013 (Conference Premier Champions): W5 D0 L4 - 15 Points

2019-2020: W2 D3 L2 - 9 Points

2 wins against Crawley and Cambridge and we are just about on track


1962-1963 (Division 4 our first-ever FL promotion) W 6, D 3, L 0 - 21 points (15 under the then 2-point ruling which was in force till the end of the 1980-81 campaign).

18 points in 1985-86, not 16
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:47 pm

Thanks Svante for checking my stats.
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:48 pm

Adopting 3 points for a win for first 9 league games

1962-1963 (Division 4 - Promoted): W6 D3 L0 - 21 Points
1972-1973 (Division 4 - 6th): W8 D1 L0 - 25 Points
1974-1975 (Division 4 Champions): W5 D3 L1 - 18 Points
1976-1977 (Division 3 Champions): W5 D1 L3 - 16 Points
1985-1986 (Division 4 Promoted): W5 D3 L1 - 18 Points
1991-1992 (Division 4 Promoted): W6 D2 L2 -20 Points
1994-1995 (Division 4 Play Offs): W3 D2 L4 - 11 Points
2001-2002 (Division 4 Promoted): W4 D4 L1 - 16 Points
2003-2004 (Division 4 Play Offs): W4 D2 L3 - 14 Points
2011-2012 (Conference Premier Play Offs): W5 D3 L1 - 18 Points
2012-2013 (Conference Premier Champions): W5 D0 L4 - 15 Points

2019-2020: W2 D3 L2 - 9 Points

2 wins against Crawley and Cambridge and we are just about on track
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby gazza1988 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:45 pm

To be fair, the start is irrelevant (results wise). It's the finish (results wise) that matter. It is entirely possible for a side to win their first 10 games and get relegated.

This early in the season. Its performances for me. We've had 1 good performance 7 games in. This time last season the results were very similar but the performances was that of "this side will give someone a tonking" (we did, the previous seasons champions 6-1 in the cup).
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby Amber Andy » Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:52 pm

gazza1988 wrote:To be fair, the start is irrelevant (results wise). It's the finish (results wise) that matter. It is entirely possible for a side to win their first 10 games and get relegated.

This early in the season. Its performances for me. We've had 1 good performance 7 games in. This time last season the results were very similar but the performances was that of "this side will give someone a tonking" (we did, the previous seasons champions 6-1 in the cup).

I'm believer that three points have the same importance at any point in the season. After all it's the total points at the end of the season that counts. Doesn't really matter when you get them.

I think where performances are important, is in the building up of momentum.
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:28 pm

The existing data does give you a good idea of where you need to be to win promotion. Paul Cox's Championship winning side won 22 out of the last 25 games at the end of the season but still picked up 15 points from the first nine games. That end of season form is also unlikely to be repeated. If you fall behind then you need to make up the shortfall later in the season which means putting together a good run of wins. It also puts the management and team under pressure particularly when games are coming thick and fast towards the end of the season.

You could in theory lose the first 20 games and then win the last 26 games and win automatic promotion. It ain't gonna happen though.

We will have played 16 out of 36 games (35%) by the end of October so a good start is normally essential. Last season we were 9th with 24 points and a game in hand (Played 15) at the end of October. We need to aim to beat that. 6 out of 9 wins would be nice. Lincoln were top on 33 points and MK Dons were 2nd on 31 points. Bury were only 10th on 23 points.
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby I am Spartacus » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:45 am

All of those that are employed or have been must start somewhere on the learning curve. Though nearly all of us have the luxury of learning our trades and crafts without the glare of the public eye. How many, when starting a new job or differing career did so with a stuttering start or would even admit to having a worse time than JD is currently having?

He may be learning more from each game than we can appreciate. Will he have learnt not to defend a two goal lead by going for 4-5-1 at home by going for the third I hope so. Does he know what his best formation and starting line up is through these injury ravaged times and when he can he play it I hope so.

A season can be judged on how it will fare by he first round of the FA cup. IMO we have had what can be described as a steady start, solid but unspectacular which I will take with a new manager. Alex Fergusson was not an overnight success just like Bobby Robson, Herbert Chapman or Ian Greaves.

Give him chance to succeed or fail, just like your employers have done with you. After all John Radford is and it is his opinion that matter most not yours or mine.
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby gazza1988 » Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:47 am

Amber Andy wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:To be fair, the start is irrelevant (results wise). It's the finish (results wise) that matter. It is entirely possible for a side to win their first 10 games and get relegated.

This early in the season. Its performances for me. We've had 1 good performance 7 games in. This time last season the results were very similar but the performances was that of "this side will give someone a tonking" (we did, the previous seasons champions 6-1 in the cup).

I'm believer that three points have the same importance at any point in the season. After all it's the total points at the end of the season that counts. Doesn't really matter when you get them.

I think where performances are important, is in the building up of momentum.


Of course it doesn't matter where we get the points from. I was trying to allude to its the finish, not the start that's important, in the sense of points gained over the season. Lincoln led the league last season, pretty much start to finish. But the other 2 automatic spots were in constant flux, certainly 3rd.

MK dons and Lincoln, who finished 3rd and 1st, won 50% of their games. Bury won 1 less so around 48% win.

I can abide a slow start if we look like we could win a game, and win well. Right now we are just not working. You could argue that players need to gel but some of the starting XI have been here years, most started games last season.

JD should be given as much time as we can. Until around November. Then we can see where we are at. The league starts taking shape around that time, you tend to see who will be challenging at the top and who will be battling relegation. A run of Paul Cox heights will be needed to change that.
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Re: Compare Dempster's start with 20 other Stags bosses

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:03 am

You generally need 23 wins for automatic promotion (50% win rate). The only teams that beat this trend in the past 10 years were:

Bury (22) 2018-2019
Scunthorpe (20) 2013-2014
Port Vale (21) 2012-2013
Wycombe (22) 2010-2011
Exeter (22) 2008-2009

Teams who had 23 or more wins but did not make the top 3 were:
Exeter (24) 2017-2018 4th
Southend (24) 2014-2015 5th
Wycome (23) 2014-2015 4th
Southend (25) 2011-2012 4th
Torquay (22) 2011-2012 5th
Cheltenham (23) 2011-2012 6th
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