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by Martin Shaw » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:51 pm
"Four points clear as Lincoln are McCaffreyised", CHAD headline, April 1975
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by Martin Shaw » Sun Apr 18, 2021 7:23 pm
my detailed report now on
"Four points clear as Lincoln are McCaffreyised", CHAD headline, April 1975
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by grufti » Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:11 am
Grimbsy can reach 52 points
Southend can reach 50 points
They don't play each other
So we need 53 points to be safe
We're on 49 points
That's another 4 points, not 3?
Am I missing something here?
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by MTFCMusings » Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:14 am
grufti wrote:Grimbsy can reach 52 points
Southend can reach 50 points
They don't play each other
So we need 53 points to be safe
We're on 49 points
That's another 4 points, not 3?
Am I missing something here?
Yes, our vastly superior goal difference.
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by steve-o » Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:18 am
grufti wrote:Grimbsy can reach 52 points
Southend can reach 50 points
They don't play each other
So we need 53 points to be safe
We're on 49 points
That's another 4 points, not 3?
Am I missing something here?
Our goal difference is significantly better than both Southend and Grimsby:
Stags -5
Southend - 29
Grimsby - 27
So realistically we only need 3 points to be safe as our superiority in GD is worth a point.
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by grufti » Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:35 am
You cannot bank on that, we need 4 points to be safe
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by Martin Shaw » Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:50 am
grufti wrote:You cannot bank on that, we need 4 points to be safe
I think quite plainly a GD shift of 22/24 is not going to be made up in 4 games.
it is of course academic.
"Four points clear as Lincoln are McCaffreyised", CHAD headline, April 1975
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by bellwhiff » Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:30 am
grufti wrote:You cannot bank on that, we need 4 points to be safe
Hahaha. If you’re so sure, I’ll bet you. A six goal swing in every game. So we have to lose 3-0 on average and they have to win by the same amount.
We are safe.
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by grufti » Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:26 pm
We aren't safe yet, we still need another 4 points to guarantee safety as it stands, which was exactly my point in the first place, correcting Martin's 3 points statement.
You can hypothesise all you like, but as it stands we need 4 points, 9pm tomorrow night will be a different story, but currently I am correct.
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by MTFCMusings » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:01 pm
grufti wrote:We aren't safe yet, we still need another 4 points to guarantee safety as it stands, which was exactly my point in the first place, correcting Martin's 3 points statement.
You can hypothesise all you like, but as it stands we need 4 points, 9pm tomorrow night will be a different story, but currently I am correct.
I can’t see where Martin has said we need 3 points though? Unless he has amended his report?
Edit : Sorry Grufti, now spotted it.
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by gazza1988 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:08 pm
We aren't safe yet?
Most bookies have stopped taking bets on it and there's only 2 left and we've been taken off the betting.
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/en ... relegationIt's a safe bet we've survived if the bokkies won't offer odds on it happening.
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by Martin Shaw » Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:30 pm
"Four points clear as Lincoln are McCaffreyised", CHAD headline, April 1975
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by grufti » Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:23 pm
Still can't admit it's 4 points needed for mathematical safety
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by gazza1988 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:07 pm
Who said anything about mathematics? Realistically were safe. What suddenly 2 of the 6 teams below us are going to defy their season long form and suddenly get promotion form in the last 4 or 5 games? 1 of them, maybe, but all of them to suddenly get a run going? 2 are within points range for a win to overtake us. 4 have to gain 3+ more points that we gain to push us down the table. It is not going to happen.
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by bellwhiff » Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:36 pm
grufti wrote:Still can't admit it's 4 points needed for mathematical safety
See above. Not talking mathematical safety.
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by MTFCMusings » Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:50 pm
That 24 goal swing might become a 48 goal one by the end of the season
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