Stagsnet report Stevenage game

[Martin Shaw]

https://stagsnet.net/match/reports/view ... tchid=1095

[Martin Shaw]

my detailed report now on

[grufti]

Grimbsy can reach 52 points
Southend can reach 50 points
They don't play each other
So we need 53 points to be safe
We're on 49 points
That's another 4 points, not 3?
Am I missing something here?

[MTFCMusings]

Grimbsy can reach 52 points
Southend can reach 50 points
They don't play each other
So we need 53 points to be safe
We're on 49 points
That's another 4 points, not 3?
Am I missing something here?

Yes, our vastly superior goal difference.

[steve-o]

Grimbsy can reach 52 points
Southend can reach 50 points
They don't play each other
So we need 53 points to be safe
We're on 49 points
That's another 4 points, not 3?
Am I missing something here?

Our goal difference is significantly better than both Southend and Grimsby:

Stags -5
Southend - 29
Grimsby - 27

So realistically we only need 3 points to be safe as our superiority in GD is worth a point.

[grufti]

You cannot bank on that, we need 4 points to be safe

[Martin Shaw]

You cannot bank on that, we need 4 points to be safe

I think quite plainly a GD shift of 22/24 is not going to be made up in 4 games.

it is of course academic.

[bellwhiff]

You cannot bank on that, we need 4 points to be safe

Hahaha. If you’re so sure, I’ll bet you. A six goal swing in every game. So we have to lose 3-0 on average and they have to win by the same amount.

We are safe.

[grufti]

We aren't safe yet, we still need another 4 points to guarantee safety as it stands, which was exactly my point in the first place, correcting Martin's 3 points statement.

You can hypothesise all you like, but as it stands we need 4 points, 9pm tomorrow night will be a different story, but currently I am correct.

[MTFCMusings]

We aren't safe yet, we still need another 4 points to guarantee safety as it stands, which was exactly my point in the first place, correcting Martin's 3 points statement.

You can hypothesise all you like, but as it stands we need 4 points, 9pm tomorrow night will be a different story, but currently I am correct.

I can’t see where Martin has said we need 3 points though? Unless he has amended his report?

Edit : Sorry Grufti, now spotted it.

[gazza1988]

We aren't safe yet?

Most bookies have stopped taking bets on it and there's only 2 left and we've been taken off the betting. https://www.oddschecker.com/football/en ... relegation

It's a safe bet we've survived if the bokkies won't offer odds on it happening.

[Martin Shaw]

my player ratings now on
https://stagsnet.net/match/reports/view ... tchid=1095

[grufti]

Still can't admit it's 4 points needed for mathematical safety

[gazza1988]

Who said anything about mathematics? Realistically were safe. What suddenly 2 of the 6 teams below us are going to defy their season long form and suddenly get promotion form in the last 4 or 5 games? 1 of them, maybe, but all of them to suddenly get a run going? 2 are within points range for a win to overtake us. 4 have to gain 3+ more points that we gain to push us down the table. It is not going to happen.

[bellwhiff]

Still can't admit it's 4 points needed for mathematical safety

See above. Not talking mathematical safety.

[MTFCMusings]

That 24 goal swing might become a 48 goal one by the end of the season