Clough and Benning press conference Fri 18 Dec

[MTFCMusings]

If it was pointless then professional football clubs, punters and bookmakers would not pay good money for this data. It is a tool for identifying trends, predicting results and calculating the real odds of potential outcomes.

Yeah! they're really good indicators. Liverpool yesterday, as shown on Match of the Day, XG 2.35 but scored 7. Yep, I really needed some nerd with no life to tell me that Liverpool are normally deadly and score a lot of their chances. Anybody would think they had won the League, Champions League and World Club Championship recently to show they might bag a few.

What stats do you need to know we don't defend set pieces well enough?
What stats do you need to know we don't defend crosses well enough?
What stats do you need to know we lost concentration and let late goals in under GC?
What stats do you need to know we can look half decent going forward until we hit the last 20 yards?
What stats do you need to know we lack creativity in midfield to open up the last 20 yards?
What stats do you need to know we are poor at crossing?
What stats do you need to know we lack finishing power when we do get in the box?

We’ve conceded 4 goals from set pieces. 16th in L2. Salford and Newport conceded the least (2), Colchester the most (12). So the Stats can tell you we defend them pretty well, contrary to your belief.

We average 4.7 accurate crosses per game. 11th in L2. Forest Green are highest with 5.7 and Southend lowest with 2.4. So the stats can show we’re top half when it comes to crossing stats, rather than poor as you suggest.

The xG stats can definitely help you with finishing stats. They predict we should have scored 5 more goals based on the quality of chances created, and that they would have led to an additional 7 points, meaning we’d be a midtable side if our strikers could finish.

The others I don’t have the figures for.

[Big yella]

If it was pointless then professional football clubs, punters and bookmakers would not pay good money for this data. It is a tool for identifying trends, predicting results and calculating the real odds of potential outcomes.

Yeah! they're really good indicators. Liverpool yesterday, as shown on Match of the Day, XG 2.35 but scored 7. Yep, I really needed some nerd with no life to tell me that Liverpool are normally deadly and score a lot of their chances. Anybody would think they had won the League, Champions League and World Club Championship recently to show they might bag a few.

What stats do you need to know we don't defend set pieces well enough?
What stats do you need to know we don't defend crosses well enough?
What stats do you need to know we lost concentration and let late goals in under GC?
What stats do you need to know we can look half decent going forward until we hit the last 20 yards?
What stats do you need to know we lack creativity in midfield to open up the last 20 yards?
What stats do you need to know we are poor at crossing?
What stats do you need to know we lack finishing power when we do get in the box?

We’ve conceded 4 goals from set pieces. 16th in L2. Salford and Newport conceded the least (2), Colchester the most (12). So the Stats can tell you we defend them pretty well, contrary to your belief.

We average 4.7 accurate crosses per game. 11th in L2. Forest Green are highest with 5.7 and Southend lowest with 2.4. So the stats can show we’re top half when it comes to crossing stats, rather than poor as you suggest.

The xG stats can definitely help you with finishing stats. They predict we should have scored 5 more goals based on the quality of chances created, and that they would have led to an additional 7 points, meaning we’d be a midtable side if our strikers could finish.

The others I don’t have the figures for.

We have certainly tightened up since GC left at defending set pieces, but I'll bet the majority of fans say 'here we go' and hold their breath every time we face one. That's because for a season and a half we have been awful at defending them, we didn't need any stats to tell us that, we saw it with our own eyes. We will stop doing it once we have had a prolonged spell of defending them better.

As for your stats making out we are not that bad at getting crosses in, I suggest you read some of the match threads to see if the majority agree with you. Being mid table in the 'oh so educational crossing league' doesn't mean we aren't that bad it just means the others are dog turd at it too. We are crap at crossing, and if the manager was to use that stat to think we aren't crap then he has a problem seeing the very basics with his own eyes.

And as for XG saying we should have scored 5 more goals and got 7 more points, that's the whole point, nobody needs stats to tell us we should have scored more and therefore obviously got more points. None of us need telling Charsley should have smashed his rebound effort into the net. None of us watch the game and then sit there and think ooo! I can't wait for Musings to come on Stagsnet and tell us if XG means we should have won. I hope he tells us if Bowery/Maynard/Cook/Reid missed a couple of easy chances. We've watched the game, we know. Everyone of us knows if 'we've been robbed' or if 'we've committed daylight robbery'. Everyone of us knows who the best side was, who created the most and best chances. None of us need the 'crossing league' to tell us.

Let's have a poll. How many times have you needed stats to tell you if we played well or not?

Anyone been listening to Talksport and heard Arteta telling everyone how good Arsenal are because the stats say so? I know who my money is on for the sack race.

[MTFCMusings]

In a singular game yes nobody needs the xG stats. But collated across the whole season, as well as those of all the other teams in the league, is very useful.

I won’t waste any more time as I know you don’t like it. Each to their own.

[Walton Stag]

I like the use of statistics, MTFCMusings, and I found your breakdown of passes in a recent game very interesting. I am not a great fan of Gordon as I think he gives the ball away too cheaply. It is my opinion and others will agree or disagree but on the day you did your “pass charts” he didn’t complete one successful pass in the opponents half. What that does is confirm is what you need to work on with that particular player.

Just saying.

[kevin kents tasce]

Big Yella. Have you ever heard of the term ‘cognitive dissonance’?

If you haven’t, then spend half an hour reading about it and then consider how factual data might help us all balance our own subconscious bias and beliefs.

Let me pose you a question. If it is a fact that we are the 11th best team at crossing, but you say that that just proves everyone is crap at it, then is it an effective tactic in today’s game?

[NorthLondonStag]

Big Yella. Have you ever heard of the term ‘cognitive dissonance’?

If you haven’t, then spend half an hour reading about it and then consider how factual data might help us all balance our own subconscious bias and beliefs.

Let me pose you a question. If it is a fact that we are the 11th best team at crossing, but you say that that just proves everyone is crap at it, then is it an effective tactic in today’s game?

I am not directing this at Big Yella... but if anyone is interested - in the context of football this is an interesting article on cognitive bias (similar to dissonance):

https://footballscr.com/cognitive-bias- ... iful-game/

[Amber Andy]

Whatever happened to the notion of "playing to our strengths" ?

[Tippy Tappy Football]

I think we will need to "play to the pitch" when we play at home and try and use it to our advantage. Play Cook and Bowery up front and pump as many crosses, set pieces and long throws into the box as possible.

[kevin kents tasce]

I am not directing this at Big Yella... but if anyone is interested - in the context of football this is an interesting article on cognitive bias (similar to dissonance):

https://footballscr.com/cognitive-bias- ... iful-game/

Just read this on my dinner break. Really good stuff, thank you.

My favourite it is this line ‘scoring a goal produces on average only one point per match in comparison to keeping a clean sheet which yields two and a half points per match’

This emphasises two things for me.

1 - When people talk about XG, XG against is generally a better indicators success thanks XG for.

2 - A better level of analysis of goalkeepers would go a long way to improving the debate around football.

These opinions are of course affected by my own cognitive bias

[Tippy Tappy Football]

"Scoring a goal produces on average only one point per match in comparison to keeping a clean sheet which yields two and a half points per match"

Was that written by Jose Mourinho?

Brian Clough always used to say that you build a team from the back and so sign the best goalkeeper and centre halfs that you can (Peter Shilton, Kenny Burns and Larry Lloyd).

[bear 73]

Stat kept only 2 clean sheets in the last 12 games , not good enough

[Big yella]

Big Yella. Have you ever heard of the term ‘cognitive dissonance’?

If you haven’t, then spend half an hour reading about it and then consider how factual data might help us all balance our own subconscious bias and beliefs.

Let me pose you a question. If it is a fact that we are the 11th best team at crossing, but you say that that just proves everyone is crap at it, then is it an effective tactic in today’s game?

Oh I don't know, why don't you ask Liverpool's front line if Alexander-Arnold and Robertson knocking it into the box is an effective tactic.

And if I have a cognitive dissonance that stats are mumbo jumbo, then surely those convinced they are so all important have an equal bias.

[robbingdog]

what a load of raspberrys

[robbingdog]

"Scoring a goal produces on average only one point per match in comparison to keeping a clean sheet which yields two and a half points per match"

Was that written by Jose Mourinho?

Brian Clough always used to say that you build a team from the back and so sign the best goalkeeper and centre halfs that you can (Peter Shilton, Kenny Burns and Larry Lloyd).

well hopefully nigel takes a leaf out of his old mans book and gets some decent centre backs in

[Big yella]

I am not directing this at Big Yella... but if anyone is interested - in the context of football this is an interesting article on cognitive bias (similar to dissonance):

https://footballscr.com/cognitive-bias- ... iful-game/

Just read this on my dinner break. Really good stuff, thank you.

My favourite it is this line ‘scoring a goal produces on average only one point per match in comparison to keeping a clean sheet which yields two and a half points per match’

This emphasises two things for me.

1 - When people talk about XG, XG against is generally a better indicators success thanks XG for.

2 - A better level of analysis of goalkeepers would go a long way to improving the debate around football.

These opinions are of course affected by my own cognitive bias

Wow!! Rocket science in action.

Oh no let me think. Clean sheet = guaranteed point, with the possibility of three. 1 goal = absolutely nothing guaranteed without the clean sheet. Maybe not the rocket science that I first thought.

[NorthLondonStag]

I am not directing this at Big Yella... but if anyone is interested - in the context of football this is an interesting article on cognitive bias (similar to dissonance):

https://footballscr.com/cognitive-bias- ... iful-game/

Just read this on my dinner break. Really good stuff, thank you.

My favourite it is this line ‘scoring a goal produces on average only one point per match in comparison to keeping a clean sheet which yields two and a half points per match’

This emphasises two things for me.

1 - When people talk about XG, XG against is generally a better indicators success thanks XG for.

2 - A better level of analysis of goalkeepers would go a long way to improving the debate around football.

These opinions are of course affected by my own cognitive bias

Wow!! Rocket science in action.

Oh no let me think. Clean sheet = guaranteed point, with the possibility of three. 1 goal = absolutely nothing guaranteed without the clean sheet. Maybe not the rocket science that I first thought.

You are entitled to your opinion Big Yella but there is some interesting stuff, eg (and what I find interesting, others may not and you are all entitled to your view):

- Mourinho (as he's been mentioned) couldn't understand the crowd reaction to corners when he came to England. That's because he knew that corners are (statistically) fairly unlikely to result in a goal. So he didn't understand why English crowds and teams saw them as such a positive. He saw them more as an opportunity to hold possession.

- For the same reason he and other continental coaches saw possession not so much as a chance to score a goal (as we might do, if passed properly) but also that the opposition can't score if you have the ball, so possession is actually a form of defence.

- Pundits look for patterns (a human trait, proved by behavioural economists) where there are none. So pundits talk about 'form' but often it's meaningless - good teams (on average) win more frequently than bad teams but their results have distributions and they are uneven. That's not much good as a headline on MOTD every week so what pundits often do is look for a pattern and say that either teams have 'form' or that the manager is more (or less) effective than he was previously. They find arguments for the pattern (cognnitive dissonance or bias) rather than just saying a lot of it is random.

[Look for example at Arteta and Solsjkaer - Arteta was crowned practically a genius at the start of the season and Solsjkaer the reverse. Now the positions are reversed but all the pundits are doing are making their 'expert opinions' fit what the table says. The managers aren't any different but the results are and the pundits need to find a reason. They completely forget what they said 6 weeks ago. Same for the Sheff Utd Manager].

- Also pundits often take the winning team and after the event say they played 'well' and the losing team and say they played 'badly' and then they find examples to justify the result (hindsight bias). See the bit where they 'analyse' the game.

- Regression to the mean - the Manager of the Month isn't a 'curse' it's just that the MOTM has 'outperformed' the previous month and goes back to normal the following month. Same as the Time Sports Star of the year (or whatever they call it) in America.

You may not agree (and may prefer your own view, of course) but all these factors have been written about and proven to some degree.

[NorthLondonStag]

More here (including hindsight bias) for those interested:

https://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.co ... tball.html

[Tippy Tappy Football]

well hopefully nigel takes a leaf out of his old mans book and gets some decent centre backs in

Ian Greaves signed George Foster from Derby County and built a team around him.

[Tippy Tappy Football]

.. but if anyone is interested - in the context of football this is an interesting article on cognitive bias (similar to dissonance):

https://footballscr.com/cognitive-bias- ... iful-game/

I've read "The Numbers Game". It was a good read.

[Big yella]

well hopefully nigel takes a leaf out of his old mans book and gets some decent centre backs in

Ian Greaves signed George Foster from Derby County and built a team around him.

So Greaves knew way back then how important a clean sheet was. Anyone know the name of the statistician who told him, I mean there must have been one, or how would he have known without XG.

Maybe 'Our Nigel' could get hold of the one his dad used, the one who told him to go get Shilton, and who told him to convert the average striker Kenny Burns into a player of the year centre half.

Maybe Don Revie's who told him build from the Charlton, Hunter pairing with Bremner just in front.

Wonder who the XG expert was that ensured Busby to build a two league winning side around 'Babe' Duncan Edwards was a good idea.

I think it's so wonderful that these wonderful new ideas can show all of us were football has gone wrong for all these years. How were they never thought of before. Wow! A good defence wins leagues. Who'd a thunk it?

[James]

Soooo, just to clarify, do you like xG or not?

[part time pete]

well hopefully nigel takes a leaf out of his old mans book and gets some decent centre backs in

Ian Greaves signed George Foster from Derby County and built a team around him.

So Greaves knew way back then how important a clean sheet was. Anyone know the name of the statistician who told him, I mean there must have been one, or how would he have known without XG.

Maybe 'Our Nigel' could get hold of the one his dad used, the one who told him to go get Shilton, and who told him to convert the average striker Kenny Burns into a player of the year centre half.

Maybe Don Revie's who told him build from the Charlton, Hunter pairing with Bremner just in front.

Wonder who the XG expert was that ensured Busby to build a two league winning side around 'Babe' Duncan Edwards was a good idea.

I think it's so wonderful that these wonderful new ideas can show all of us were football has gone wrong for all these years. How were they never thought of before. Wow! A good defence wins leagues. Who'd a thunk it?

They got their thinking from Charles Reep

https://www.sportperformanceanalysis.co ... arles-reep

[Stagdale]

Ian Greaves said the basis of a successful team was a very good goalkeeper, centre half and centre forward and build the rest of the team around those three positions. Still think that is true today.

He had Kevin Hitchcock, George Foster and Keith Cassells. Just compare those players to what we have now and therein lies the problem.

[yorkshire stag]

Ian Greaves said the basis of a successful team was a very good goalkeeper, centre half and centre forward and build the rest of the team around those three positions. Still think that is true today.

He had Kevin Hitchcock, George Foster and Keith Cassells. Just compare those players to what we have now and therein lies the problem.

“he said he was going build a team, & he said he was going to build it around me” still remember Big George’s interview after the FRT 0-1 away loss like it was yesterday

what a night, the best Stags loss in my lifetime

we took bloody loads, a great day on the Paul Taylor away bus

[Tippy Tappy Football]

Jonathan Wilson's "Inverting The Pyramid" is a very good book on the history of football tactics.

Not very good though if you think that 4-4-2 has been and is the only way to play football