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Mansfield Town and League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby gazza1988 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:41 pm

Sandy Pate Best Stag wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
Dan wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:For me a successful dribble is on where a players has possession of the ball and gets past an opposition player and retains the ball with nobody else touching it. Whilst also going forwards towards the byline.

When CJ used to knock the ball past the full back and then run onto it, that's a dribble. When Wayno Cordinhio used to tie defenders up in knots and leave them on their backside to wither get a shot or cross in, that's a dribble. When Hayden White used to do a few step overs before knocking the ball past his opponent and get a cross in, that's a dribble. When Ollie Clarke takes 2 touches and gets through 3 players to thread a ball through, that's a dribble.

It's a failed dribble if the someone else gets a touch to it or its run out of play.

That my opinion of it anyway.


That's my whole point with these made up statistics like xG etc. They're not 'proper' stats like shots on goal, shots on target, corners, goals, yellow cards, red cards etc they're opinions. That's what does my head in and loads of other people. It's just made up mumbo jumbo brought in by young people with nothing better to do with their time to try and make the game more 'trendy'.

Look at xG. Now to me 'expected' is something that will happen in the future. Therefore xG would be what you expect the teams to score in the game that's coming up. How you would be able to tell that anyway unless you're some sort of psychic is beyond me anyway. But now Musings is saying that it's used AFTER the game too. So how can it be 'expected' when the game had finished? I saw one the other day that one team had got 2 xG and the game had finished 0-0! Surely if xG is done after the game then both teams xG's would both be 0, no? It's ridiculous. No one seems to know what they're on about, it's embarrassing.


Technically speaking aren't shots and shots on target opinion based? It's the opinion of the one compiling those stats whether it was a shot or not. Also if they are in the press box in the west stand (for games at field Mill for example) is that the best angle for the tight ones that could be just on target? What constitutes a shot? I've seen games where we've shot and the defender blocks it and it's not counted as a shot at all. For me a shot is a player striking the ball towards goal. The only concrete stats we have around these are the ones the referee indicates. Goals, free kicks, corners, yellow/red cards etc. Others like passes and saves etc can also be reliably counted.

Just to be extra facetious technically stats like fouls, goals, cards, corners etc come from the referee and so are based on the opinion of 1 person too so should they be discounted as well ;)

Isn't expected past tense? So it does work. Something happening in the future would be expecting, surely? Just expect can be future as well. For example, "I expect a win on Saturday" "I'm expecting a win on Saturday" are both future and valid for this Saturday but if I say "I expected a win on Saturday" indicates I think we should have won the previous Saturday.

As for a game finishing 0-0 and the xG should be 0? No, that's not how it works. It's expected goal not scored goals. The 0-0 you mention with 1 side having a xG of 2 makes no sense. It kinda does. To me it says 1 of 2 things(you can use other stats to figure out which) either the defence and keeper played a blinder or the attackers had a nightmare finishing.

What you need to understand about the xG stats is its a likelihood of a goal occurring from the chance that was created. That's it. At the end of the game all these chances ratings are added up and that's how you get the total xG and why its nearly always decimal.

Don't think of xG as affecting the result, that's not it's intention. It's an attempts to tell the story of the game without having to watch it. Yes, nothing beats watching the game but it's there if you want it.

XG isn't really something you can explain in a forum post.


A small flaw in that Gaza as expected can also be used in a future tense as in ‘You will be playing on Saturday and you will be expected to perform to a high standard’. So you can use expected in the future tense if it’s expected by someone else.

You could argue this all day long and everyone will have a different view. Maybe we should just accept that there is some merit to the system but the level of merit varies with your own view of the issue.


Yeah that is true on expected. The point still stands that it's used more in past tense and not exclusively future tense which Dan insinuated. Which is what my examples were to show.
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby Dan » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:43 pm

There’s so many contradictions in the above posts I don’t know where to start.

It’s still opinion based then as I’ve said from the start. Which makes it not accurate, therefore a waste of time.

Let’s say that in one game both teams have 17 shots each with 12 on target apiece. How is that worked out? How on earth can decimal points be used. A goal is a goal. Not .3 of a goal. So surely the xG for that would be something like 4v4 depending on how good the attempts on target are. And even then it’ll be the person doing the stats opinion. Opinions are what we all have on here so they can be challenged unlike facts like corners or goals which are indisputable facts.

To quote big yella, it’s all bullshit.
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:45 pm

Dan it’s clear you don’t understand it so just let it go :lol:

Team A has 3 shots from 6 yards out in the centre of the goal.

Team B has 3 shots from 30 yards out on the left hand side.

Which of those is more likely to result in a goal?
Last edited by MTFCMusings on Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby Dan » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:50 pm

MTFCMusings wrote:Dan it’s clear you don’t understand it so just let it go :lol:


You don’t either that’s why you keep contradicting yourself ;)
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:51 pm

Dan wrote:
MTFCMusings wrote:Dan it’s clear you don’t understand it so just let it go :lol:


You don’t either that’s why you keep contradicting yourself ;)


I haven’t done. See above edited post example if you’re actually interested in how it works. Or alternatively just keep spouting your uninformed ideas and ignoring what everyone’s saying :lol:
Last edited by MTFCMusings on Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby Dan » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:52 pm

MTFCMusings wrote:
Dan wrote:
MTFCMusings wrote:Dan it’s clear you don’t understand it so just let it go :lol:


You don’t either that’s why you keep contradicting yourself ;)


I haven’t done. See above edited post example.


But you’ve still not said where the decimal point comes in.
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:56 pm

Dan wrote:
MTFCMusings wrote:
Dan wrote:
MTFCMusings wrote:Dan it’s clear you don’t understand it so just let it go :lol:


You don’t either that’s why you keep contradicting yourself ;)


I haven’t done. See above edited post example.


But you’ve still not said where the decimal point comes in.


It’s the probability of a chance resulting in a goal. No chance is a certain goal, therefore a chance will never have an xG of 1.

As an example, if a shot has an xG of 0.1, they’re saying that type of chance will result in a goal 1 out of 10 times. That would probably be a shot from 30 yards for example.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.goal.com/en/amp/news/what-is-xg-football-how-statistic-calculated/h42z0iiv8mdg1ub10iisg1dju
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:04 am

Some xG mentions on MNF tonight.
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:10 am

Is there a summary anywhere Sam of what the going xG rate is for a corner, penalty, free kick in opposition half, free kick on edge of area, 25 yard shot etc?
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:29 am

Tippy Tappy Football wrote:Is there a summary anywhere Sam of what the going xG rate is for a corner, penalty, free kick in opposition half, free kick on edge of area, 25 yard shot etc?


I know a penalty is 0.76.

For the others, there are too many variables I think for a set map to be produced. If you do a google image search ‘xG value map’, there’s plenty of images which who’ll give you a rough idea.
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby kevin kents tasce » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:34 am

Tippy Tappy Football wrote:Is there a summary anywhere Sam of what the going xG rate is for a corner, penalty, free kick in opposition half, free kick on edge of area, 25 yard shot etc?


I don’t think they work out XG from the situation, it’s worked out from where the shot is taken.

There are percentages stats for set pieces floating around though. Here’s a couple of
good articles from statsbomb which talk about corners

https://statsbomb.com/2013/08/corners-g ... er-league/

https://statsbomb.com/2019/05/breaking- ... -and-more/

I can’t find the article, but there is a really good one I read previously. It offers an explanation of why teams cross towards the near post area and near corner of the 6 yard box. Basically there is a higher likelihood of scoring from deliveries to this area. Defending teams know this too, so there is a big emphasis on the delivery being high quality to beat the defender who is placed to mark that zone.

Lazy commentators often moan about not beating the first man, but those who are informed by the data understand why it is a good tactic to persist with, even though the defenders sometimes come stop the cross.
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:17 pm



Another ‘football twitter’ person lands another job in football. You may have seen Jay’s tweets as @Blades_analytic
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:10 pm

Did Blades Analytic work for Darragh MacAnthony at Posh?

DMac is a big stats man. He often talks on his podcasts about giving Darren Ferguson stat updates e.g. "we need to increase the number of crosses into the area"
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:01 pm

Tippy Tappy Football wrote:Did Blades Analytic work for Darragh MacAnthony at Posh?

DMac is a big stats man. He often talks on his podcasts about giving Darren Ferguson stat updates e.g. "we need to increase the number of crosses into the area"


He did yes for a while.
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:41 pm

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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby part time pete » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:19 pm

Perhaps you can say that young Nige, doesn’t trust the players on the bench.

There is no evidence to say that making substitutions would improve the results.

There seems to be a similar number of teams in each quadrant.
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:33 pm

part time pete wrote:Perhaps you can say that young Nige, doesn’t trust the players on the bench.

There is no evidence to say that making substitutions would improve the results.

There seems to be a similar number of teams in each quadrant.


The main thing it shows is that we’ve made far fewer subs than the other teams in the division.

Like you say though, it could be all manner of things causing the xG issue, rather than purely substitutions.
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby Dan » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:50 pm

MTFCMusings wrote:
part time pete wrote:Perhaps you can say that young Nige, doesn’t trust the players on the bench.

There is no evidence to say that making substitutions would improve the results.

There seems to be a similar number of teams in each quadrant.


The main thing it shows is that we’ve made far fewer subs than the other teams in the division.

Like you say though, it could be all manner of things causing the xG issue, rather than purely substitutions.


Such as it not being a proper stat you mean? ;)
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:12 pm

Dan wrote:
MTFCMusings wrote:
part time pete wrote:Perhaps you can say that young Nige, doesn’t trust the players on the bench.

There is no evidence to say that making substitutions would improve the results.

There seems to be a similar number of teams in each quadrant.


The main thing it shows is that we’ve made far fewer subs than the other teams in the division.

Like you say though, it could be all manner of things causing the xG issue, rather than purely substitutions.


Such as it not being a proper stat you mean? ;)


:lol: there’s been a lot of debate about it on twitter the last few days Dan if you’re interested.
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby Dan » Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:50 pm

MTFCMusings wrote:
Dan wrote:
MTFCMusings wrote:
part time pete wrote:Perhaps you can say that young Nige, doesn’t trust the players on the bench.

There is no evidence to say that making substitutions would improve the results.

There seems to be a similar number of teams in each quadrant.


The main thing it shows is that we’ve made far fewer subs than the other teams in the division.

Like you say though, it could be all manner of things causing the xG issue, rather than purely substitutions.


Such as it not being a proper stat you mean? ;)


:lol: there’s been a lot of debate about it on twitter the last few days Dan if you’re interested.


I’m not :D
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:57 pm

League 2 - Counter attacks ending in a shot.

The Stags are doing well on the counter attack but so are Morecambe.

77 - Morecambe
74 - Carlisle
69 - Bolton
60 - Cambridge
60 - Mansfield
58 - Oldham
56 - Salford
56 - Scunthorpe
55 - Crawley
54 - Barrow
53 - Exeter
52 - Cheltenham
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:46 pm

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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:08 pm

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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby MTFCMusings » Sun Mar 28, 2021 10:30 pm

For anyone interested, expected goals v actual goals from open playing :

Jordan Bowery : 7.75 v 8
Jamie Reid : 7.68 v 5
Harry Charsley : 6.17 v 4
Nicky Maynard : 4.85 v 3

Top 3 :

Paul Mullin : 15.08 v 19
Jamille Matt : 12.43 v 13
James Vaughan 10.26 v 13

Overperformers :

Eoin Doyle : 10.11 v 13
Ryan Bowman : 9.04. v 12
Danny Johnson : 7.75 v 14(!!)
Elijah Adebayo : 7.28 v 10
Max Watters : 6.54 v 13(!!)
Joe Ironside : 6.42 v 9
Jack Muldoon : 6.20 v 12(!!)
Joel Randall : 5.13. V 8
Jon Mellish : 5.01 v 8

Underperformers :

Alfie May : 9.62 v 6
Aaron Collins : 8.72 v 5
Josh Gordon : 5.8 v 2
Brandon Thomas-Asante: 5.56 v 2
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Re: League 2 Statistics 2020-2021

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:13 am

Some great stats there Sam.

So Jordan Bowery is slightly out performing his xG.

Paul Mullin is having the season of his life (25 goals and 4 assists) summed up by the 35 yarder he smashed in from nowhere in the last minute against Walsall. Joe Ironside is also having a great season with 11 goals and 4 assists.

Eoin Doyle had a slow start to the season but is now coming good with 16 goals and 3 assists. He's scored 5 goals in the last 8 games. Dappy Ofalayan is now Bolton's top rated player on whoscored along with Antoni Sarcevic.

Danny Johnson ("The DJ") had a great start to the season but has not scored since 2nd January (kiss of death!!). Conor Wilkinson has been Orient's best attacking player in recent games and is their top rated player with the dangerous James Brophy on the left.

Jack Muldoon was also quick out of the blocks but has only scored 1 goal since 26th Jan. Aaron Martin is Harrogate's top rated player but only 5 goals and 6 assists compared to Muldoon's 12 goals and 4 assists.

Ryan Bowman is also going through a quiet spell for goals. He's only scored three since 15th December. He has 12 goals and 3 assists. Matt Jay is Exeter's top rated player with 16 goals and 6 assists.
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