Bradders wrote:Dave Wayne wrote:Bradders wrote:Gazmoose82 wrote:No chance fans will be back until next season imo.
But season tickets will sell well for 21/22 with the nigel factor in place
It looks like a vaccine rollout will begin in January and although it won't instantly lead to restrictions being lifted, there will come a point where the close down becomes a bit worthless. And we don't have to wait until everyone has had immunisation.
Most experts are saying that the vaccination programme will take between 6 months and a year to complete.
While the government are happily telling us how many millions of vaccines they have procured, what they aren't telling us is the timescales involved in the production of the vaccine and the supply chains.
The WHO will be working closely with the vaccine producers to ensure it is available equally to all countries, not just to those who are prepared to pay more for it.
The first batches will be used to vaccinate essential health care workers, the second phase will be over 65s and high risk/vulnerable people, and then it will start to roll out to the rest of the population.
What this means is that no country will receive vaccines for phase 2 until all countries have had enough supplies to complete phase 1.
Therefore, it is highly likely that even if a vaccination programme starts in the UK in January, the football season will be over before we have acceptable levels of vaccinated people in the UK to return to anything like normal.
We don't actually need that many vaccinations to be able to drop most restrictions. I doubt that we'll attempt to vaccinate everyone, something like 60% will be enough. And production started some months ago, so there should be plenty available in January. Prioritising the right groups will make things fairly safe quite quickly, and I can't see football stadiums still being forced to stay empty once the first phase of vaccination is well underway.
As I said, it's not just about vaccinating the UK, it's about vaccinating the whole world.
The first phase - essential health and care workers is estimated at around 3% of the population. With the current world population standing at 7.8 billion, that means 234 million people have to be vaccinated before we even start on the over 65s and high risk group. That group is estimated at around 20% of the population, so accounts for another 1.56 billion people.
Once that is done we can then start on the 3rd phase, so as you can see, it is going to take quite a while to reach the 60% figure that you think will be enough.