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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby Dave Wayne » Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:11 pm

Bradders wrote:
Dave Wayne wrote:
Bradders wrote:
Gazmoose82 wrote:No chance fans will be back until next season imo.

But season tickets will sell well for 21/22 with the nigel factor in place :D

It looks like a vaccine rollout will begin in January and although it won't instantly lead to restrictions being lifted, there will come a point where the close down becomes a bit worthless. And we don't have to wait until everyone has had immunisation.

Most experts are saying that the vaccination programme will take between 6 months and a year to complete.
While the government are happily telling us how many millions of vaccines they have procured, what they aren't telling us is the timescales involved in the production of the vaccine and the supply chains.
The WHO will be working closely with the vaccine producers to ensure it is available equally to all countries, not just to those who are prepared to pay more for it.
The first batches will be used to vaccinate essential health care workers, the second phase will be over 65s and high risk/vulnerable people, and then it will start to roll out to the rest of the population.
What this means is that no country will receive vaccines for phase 2 until all countries have had enough supplies to complete phase 1.
Therefore, it is highly likely that even if a vaccination programme starts in the UK in January, the football season will be over before we have acceptable levels of vaccinated people in the UK to return to anything like normal.

We don't actually need that many vaccinations to be able to drop most restrictions. I doubt that we'll attempt to vaccinate everyone, something like 60% will be enough. And production started some months ago, so there should be plenty available in January. Prioritising the right groups will make things fairly safe quite quickly, and I can't see football stadiums still being forced to stay empty once the first phase of vaccination is well underway.

As I said, it's not just about vaccinating the UK, it's about vaccinating the whole world.
The first phase - essential health and care workers is estimated at around 3% of the population. With the current world population standing at 7.8 billion, that means 234 million people have to be vaccinated before we even start on the over 65s and high risk group. That group is estimated at around 20% of the population, so accounts for another 1.56 billion people.
Once that is done we can then start on the 3rd phase, so as you can see, it is going to take quite a while to reach the 60% figure that you think will be enough.
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby bellwhiff » Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:01 pm

Dave Wayne wrote:
Bradders wrote:
Dave Wayne wrote:
Bradders wrote:
Gazmoose82 wrote:No chance fans will be back until next season imo.

But season tickets will sell well for 21/22 with the nigel factor in place :D

It looks like a vaccine rollout will begin in January and although it won't instantly lead to restrictions being lifted, there will come a point where the close down becomes a bit worthless. And we don't have to wait until everyone has had immunisation.

Most experts are saying that the vaccination programme will take between 6 months and a year to complete.
While the government are happily telling us how many millions of vaccines they have procured, what they aren't telling us is the timescales involved in the production of the vaccine and the supply chains.
The WHO will be working closely with the vaccine producers to ensure it is available equally to all countries, not just to those who are prepared to pay more for it.
The first batches will be used to vaccinate essential health care workers, the second phase will be over 65s and high risk/vulnerable people, and then it will start to roll out to the rest of the population.
What this means is that no country will receive vaccines for phase 2 until all countries have had enough supplies to complete phase 1.
Therefore, it is highly likely that even if a vaccination programme starts in the UK in January, the football season will be over before we have acceptable levels of vaccinated people in the UK to return to anything like normal.

We don't actually need that many vaccinations to be able to drop most restrictions. I doubt that we'll attempt to vaccinate everyone, something like 60% will be enough. And production started some months ago, so there should be plenty available in January. Prioritising the right groups will make things fairly safe quite quickly, and I can't see football stadiums still being forced to stay empty once the first phase of vaccination is well underway.

As I said, it's not just about vaccinating the UK, it's about vaccinating the whole world.
The first phase - essential health and care workers is estimated at around 3% of the population. With the current world population standing at 7.8 billion, that means 234 million people have to be vaccinated before we even start on the over 65s and high risk group. That group is estimated at around 20% of the population, so accounts for another 1.56 billion people.
Once that is done we can then start on the 3rd phase, so as you can see, it is going to take quite a while to reach the 60% figure that you think will be enough.

Except that isn’t how it is going to work.
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby Dave Wayne » Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:34 pm

bellwhiff wrote:
Dave Wayne wrote:
Bradders wrote:
Dave Wayne wrote:
Bradders wrote:It looks like a vaccine rollout will begin in January and although it won't instantly lead to restrictions being lifted, there will come a point where the close down becomes a bit worthless. And we don't have to wait until everyone has had immunisation.

Most experts are saying that the vaccination programme will take between 6 months and a year to complete.
While the government are happily telling us how many millions of vaccines they have procured, what they aren't telling us is the timescales involved in the production of the vaccine and the supply chains.
The WHO will be working closely with the vaccine producers to ensure it is available equally to all countries, not just to those who are prepared to pay more for it.
The first batches will be used to vaccinate essential health care workers, the second phase will be over 65s and high risk/vulnerable people, and then it will start to roll out to the rest of the population.
What this means is that no country will receive vaccines for phase 2 until all countries have had enough supplies to complete phase 1.
Therefore, it is highly likely that even if a vaccination programme starts in the UK in January, the football season will be over before we have acceptable levels of vaccinated people in the UK to return to anything like normal.

We don't actually need that many vaccinations to be able to drop most restrictions. I doubt that we'll attempt to vaccinate everyone, something like 60% will be enough. And production started some months ago, so there should be plenty available in January. Prioritising the right groups will make things fairly safe quite quickly, and I can't see football stadiums still being forced to stay empty once the first phase of vaccination is well underway.

As I said, it's not just about vaccinating the UK, it's about vaccinating the whole world.
The first phase - essential health and care workers is estimated at around 3% of the population. With the current world population standing at 7.8 billion, that means 234 million people have to be vaccinated before we even start on the over 65s and high risk group. That group is estimated at around 20% of the population, so accounts for another 1.56 billion people.
Once that is done we can then start on the 3rd phase, so as you can see, it is going to take quite a while to reach the 60% figure that you think will be enough.

Except that isn’t how it is going to work.

Well that's what it says here but I'm sure you know better.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-54027269
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby chip63 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:01 pm

The Oxford AstraZeneca is being created with poorer countries in mind, they don't have the storage capability for the American vaccine in such large numbers.
So the chances of countries like ours getting fully vaccinated first is more than likely.
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby Dan » Sat Nov 21, 2020 12:22 am

West Ham 1969 wrote:
Rob wrote:
Martin Shaw wrote:I've seen Bradley at numerous Stags home games, as guests of John & Carolyn or other directors. I seem to recall he'd been at an away game or two as well, from his facebook page (MK Dons springs to mind).

I've never seen Anderson at a game. Then again I wouldn't have recognised him until a year or so ago.


Alan Meale used to attend games too, he too was a complete and utter raspberry. I'd love to know when Mansfield (or Ashfield) last had an MP of any persuasion who genuinely gave a flying toss about our club ....... I'm sure some of the oldies on here might know of one, but not in my lifetime. The current MP is an embarrassment to the town, as was his predecessor.


I was sat on the same row as Ben at MK last season. He was wearing his Stags shirt and was with his mates.

Works his socks off for Mansfield and best MP we have had in my memory. Has my full support...keep it up Ben.


Wow :lol: :lol: You'll be telling us Boris is doing a good job next, Christ :lol:
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby Hjeldefan » Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:33 am

West Ham 1969 wrote:
Rob wrote:
Martin Shaw wrote:I've seen Bradley at numerous Stags home games, as guests of John & Carolyn or other directors. I seem to recall he'd been at an away game or two as well, from his facebook page (MK Dons springs to mind).

I've never seen Anderson at a game. Then again I wouldn't have recognised him until a year or so ago.


Alan Meale used to attend games too, he too was a complete and utter raspberry. I'd love to know when Mansfield (or Ashfield) last had an MP of any persuasion who genuinely gave a flying toss about our club ....... I'm sure some of the oldies on here might know of one, but not in my lifetime. The current MP is an embarrassment to the town, as was his predecessor.


I was sat on the same row as Ben at MK last season. He was wearing his Stags shirt and was with his mates.

Works his socks off for Mansfield and best MP we have had in my memory. Has my full support...keep it up Ben.

Is this not political? Any criticism of this plank gets banished to the politics page but praise him and nothing :roll:
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby West Ham 1969 » Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:40 pm

Dan wrote:
West Ham 1969 wrote:
Rob wrote:
Martin Shaw wrote:I've seen Bradley at numerous Stags home games, as guests of John & Carolyn or other directors. I seem to recall he'd been at an away game or two as well, from his facebook page (MK Dons springs to mind).

I've never seen Anderson at a game. Then again I wouldn't have recognised him until a year or so ago.


Alan Meale used to attend games too, he too was a complete and utter raspberry. I'd love to know when Mansfield (or Ashfield) last had an MP of any persuasion who genuinely gave a flying toss about our club ....... I'm sure some of the oldies on here might know of one, but not in my lifetime. The current MP is an embarrassment to the town, as was his predecessor.


I was sat on the same row as Ben at MK last season. He was wearing his Stags shirt and was with his mates.

Works his socks off for Mansfield and best MP we have had in my memory. Has my full support...keep it up Ben.


Wow :lol: :lol: You'll be telling us Boris is doing a good job next, Christ :lol:


Yes I do....and there’s no need to call me Christ. I’m not that good yet :lol:
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby bellwhiff » Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:47 pm

Dave Wayne wrote:What this means is that no country will receive vaccines for phase 2 until all countries have had enough supplies to complete phase 1.


This is the bit that I don’t agree with. You’re saying that no countries will be able to vaccinate anyone outside this group until the whole planet!s health and care workers have been done is just not true.

You’re saying that the UK can’t start on lower risk groups until every country in the world has done theirs?

That isn’t how it works.
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby The One » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:39 pm

bellwhiff wrote:
Dave Wayne wrote:What this means is that no country will receive vaccines for phase 2 until all countries have had enough supplies to complete phase 1.


This is the bit that I don’t agree with. You’re saying that no countries will be able to vaccinate anyone outside this group until the whole planet!s health and care workers have been done is just not true.

You’re saying that the UK can’t start on lower risk groups until every country in the world has done theirs?

That isn’t how it works.


Agree. That sounds well out of sync
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby chip63 » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:49 pm

When you think how getting these vaccines to some places in Africa will take, it's mind boggling.
It will probably be mobile clinics in trucks waiting for air drops.
John Claude van tam said it will probably be 3 weeks between age groups getting the vaccine, if supplies keep up.
I can see the playoffs having fans allowed into grounds this season.
Let's hope it's us.
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby Dave Wayne » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:50 pm

The One wrote:
bellwhiff wrote:
Dave Wayne wrote:What this means is that no country will receive vaccines for phase 2 until all countries have had enough supplies to complete phase 1.


This is the bit that I don’t agree with. You’re saying that no countries will be able to vaccinate anyone outside this group until the whole planet!s health and care workers have been done is just not true.

You’re saying that the UK can’t start on lower risk groups until every country in the world has done theirs?

That isn’t how it works.


Agree. That sounds well out of sync

If you read the section titled 'So who gets it first ?' in the article I linked higher up, that is exactly what it says.
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby The One » Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:03 pm

Dave Wayne wrote:
The One wrote:
bellwhiff wrote:
Dave Wayne wrote:What this means is that no country will receive vaccines for phase 2 until all countries have had enough supplies to complete phase 1.


This is the bit that I don’t agree with. You’re saying that no countries will be able to vaccinate anyone outside this group until the whole planet!s health and care workers have been done is just not true.

You’re saying that the UK can’t start on lower risk groups until every country in the world has done theirs?

That isn’t how it works.


Agree. That sounds well out of sync

If you read the section titled 'So who gets it first ?' in the article I linked higher up, that is exactly what it says.


The Times today says different, we will see .
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby chip63 » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:04 pm

4000 fans allowed at outdoor sports from 2nd December.
Need to be in low risk areas, think Thursday Mansfield will know.

:coys:
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby BH_Stag » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:14 pm

Would love to get back, but expect Mansfield will be tier 3 frustratingly.
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby NorthLondonStag » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:15 pm

chip63 wrote:4000 fans allowed at outdoor sports from 2nd December.
Need to be in low risk areas, think Thursday Mansfield will know.

:coys:


I just read that it is apparently going to work like this:

Tier 1 - 4,000 or 50% of capacity, whichever is lower

Ties 2 - 2,000 or 50% of capacity, whichever is lower

Tier 3 - no fans

Not sure what it means for away fans - maybe they will ban that full stop to avoid people travelling.

What's the official capacity - is it still around 9,000?
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby chip63 » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:16 pm

BH_Stag wrote:Would love to get back, but expect Mansfield will be tier 3 frustratingly.


Just looked at away games coming up, Carlisle Grimsby lol no chance.
Cambridge?
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby NorthLondonStag » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:22 pm

chip63 wrote:
BH_Stag wrote:Would love to get back, but expect Mansfield will be tier 3 frustratingly.


Just looked at away games coming up, Carlisle Grimsby lol no chance.
Cambridge?


Their infection rates are unfortunately high, according to their local paper.
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby BH_Stag » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:25 pm

chip63 wrote:
BH_Stag wrote:Would love to get back, but expect Mansfield will be tier 3 frustratingly.


Just looked at away games coming up, Carlisle Grimsby lol no chance.
Cambridge?


Would be surprised if away fans were allowed at this stage. Hopefully once this vaccine gets going though we’ll start to move back towards a proper football experience before long.
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby Sedgwick » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:39 pm

No away fans and up to 4,000 home fans could be a nice advantage at the mill

Cant see that helping clubs like barrow haha
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby Rob » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:40 pm

This does raise a question of sporting fairness about all this, if you think that having home fans is an advantage (which I do) then clubs who happen to be located in a Tier 3 area will be at a disadvantage to a club in a Tier 1 area. Not sure how that sits in a fair and balanced competition, after all, it isn't the clubs fault Covid cases are high.
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby bellwhiff » Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:08 pm

Posted on the other thread but the pic on the BBC News side bar when mentioning the football is Stags :)
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby cassellswasmagic » Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:17 pm

Sedgwick wrote:No away fans and up to 4,000 home fans could be a nice advantage at the mill

Cant see that helping clubs like barrow haha

Unfortunately I can’t see Mansfield being out of that damn tier 3 when lockdown ends!!!
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby lifestags » Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:11 pm

back on subject a minute, this wont affect us as were more then likely to be in tier 3? about right?
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby Martin Shaw » Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:39 pm

lifestags wrote:back on subject a minute, this wont affect us as were more then likely to be in tier 3? about right?

Probably. To be announced on Thursday. Reviewed every two weeks.
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Re: Prep for fans returning/bail-out/Project big picture etc

Postby Sedgwick » Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:20 pm

bellwhiff wrote:Posted on the other thread but the pic on the BBC News side bar when mentioning the football is Stags :)


We know who to thank for the BBC using a Mansfield photo :? :lol:
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