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Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Stags 2002 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:06 pm

Another thing to keep an eye on is goal difference as it could play a part later in proceedings.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby arsene wengers coat » Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:19 pm

Big yella wrote:
halifaxstag wrote:Tranmere could have a massive effect on the finish. In their last eight matches they play Carlisle, FGR, MK and Bury at home and Colchester and Lincoln away.

Let's hope their form continues and they take points off at least Franchise, Bury and the Imps.


That would be nice, but a bonus at best. All we can do is concentrate on us selves.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby part time pete » Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:04 pm

Stags 2002 wrote:We have now officially played each team once. As i did last year working on the basis that if you win at home and draw away i.e take 4pts per team you'll get 92 points .Below is the road map for the remaining reverse fixtures and outcome required to secure 4pts against each team.

The defeat against Exeter means only 3pts rather than 4pts are attainable setting 91pts as the starting target.

Bury H (W) (W) +0 91pts
Swindon H (W) (D) -2 89pts
Grimsby A (D) (W) +2 91pts
Carlisle A (D) (L) -1 90pts
Yeovil H (W) (L) -3 87pts
Colchester A (W) (W) +0 87pts
Tranmere H (W) (W) +0 87pts
Macclesfield H (W) (W) +0 87pts
Newport A (D) (L) -1 86pts
Notts County A (D) (L) -1 85pts
Forest Green H (W)
Cheltenham H (W)
Port Vale A (D)
Crawley A (D)
Lincoln H (W)
Crewe H (D)
Exeter A (W)
Cambridge H (W)
Northampton A (D)
Morecambe H (D)
Oldham A (W)
Stevenage H (D)
MK Dons A (W)

13 games remain - 7 Wins 6 Draws will give us 85 points.


So we managed to get the two wins, so need 5 wins and 6 draws to get 85 pts.
Can we play Accrington Stanley every week.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Stags 2002 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:11 pm

We have now officially played each team once. As i did last year working on the basis that if you win at home and draw away i.e take 4pts per team you'll get 92 points .Below is the road map for the remaining reverse fixtures and outcome required to secure 4pts against each team.

The defeat against Exeter means only 3pts rather than 4pts are attainable setting 91pts as the starting target.

Bury H (W) (W) +0 91pts
Swindon H (W) (D) -2 89pts
Grimsby A (D) (W) +2 91pts
Carlisle A (D) (L) -1 90pts
Yeovil H (W) (L) -3 87pts
Colchester A (W) (W) +0 87pts
Tranmere H (W) (W) +0 87pts
Macclesfield H (W) (W) +0 87pts
Newport A (D) (L) -1 86pts
Notts County A (D) (L) -1 85pts
Forest Green H (W) +0 85pts
Cheltenham H (W) +0 85pts
Port Vale A (D)
Crawley A (D)
Lincoln H (W)
Crewe H (D)
Exeter A (W)
Cambridge H (W)
Northampton A (D)
Morecambe H (D)
Oldham A (W)
Stevenage H (D)
MK Dons A (W)

11 games remain - 5 Wins 6 Draws will give us 85 points.

Just for you pete ;)
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Stags 2002 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:46 am

We have now officially played each team once. As i did last year working on the basis that if you win at home and draw away i.e take 4pts per team you'll get 92 points .Below is the road map for the remaining reverse fixtures and outcome required to secure 4pts against each team.

The defeat against Exeter means only 3pts rather than 4pts are attainable setting 91pts as the starting target.

Bury H (W) (W) +0 91pts
Swindon H (W) (D) -2 89pts
Grimsby A (D) (W) +2 91pts
Carlisle A (D) (L) -1 90pts
Yeovil H (W) (L) -3 87pts
Colchester A (W) (W) +0 87pts
Tranmere H (W) (W) +0 87pts
Macclesfield H (W) (W) +0 87pts
Newport A (D) (L) -1 86pts
Notts County A (D) (L) -1 85pts
Forest Green H (W) (W) +0 85pts
Cheltenham H (W) (W) +0 85pts
Port Vale A (D) (L) -1 84pts
Crawley A (D)
Lincoln H (W)
Crewe H (D)
Exeter A (W)
Cambridge H (W)
Northampton A (D)
Morecambe H (D)
Oldham A (W)
Stevenage H (D)
MK Dons A (W)

10 games remain - 5 Wins 5 Draws will give us 84 points.

Only done a double over Grimsby so far and its this thats causing the points drop.

Need some doubles to increase the points target so really need to beat Crawley, Lincoln and Crewe. The points target would then increase to 88pts before playing Exeter and Cambridge.

Now is the perfect time to start a run of wins - and we certainly need too.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:14 pm

We all know it's going to go down to the wire and we will have to beat or avoid defeat at Franchise FC in the final game.

"There's an easy way, a hard way and the Mansfield Town way" - Keith Curle
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby arsene wengers coat » Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:23 pm

I don't think we can now.

Might revise that after Tuesday and then Monday after that. But the next 2 games will define our fate I think.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby adamstag » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:57 pm

7 points clear with a better GD in the middle of January and we’ve let it slip, again

The difference is this season we can rectify it and still finish top 3.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Spiritater » Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:01 pm

arsene wengers coat wrote:I don't think we can now.

Might revise that after Tuesday and then Monday after that. But the next 2 games will define our fate I think.


Have to agree. By a week on Monday if we lose both to Creepy and Lincoln we could be 7 points behind the top 3.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:11 pm

I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion, TOP 3 finish.

Current Table
PLD.....W......D.....L......PTS......PPG
37......17.....14....6......65.......1.76

Required for 81 points
PLD....W......D......L......PTS......PPG
9.......5.......1......3.......16......1.78
9.......4.......4......1.......16......1.78

Based on our current PPG 1.76 we would finish on 81 points, which is usually Top 3, automatic promotion.

In our last 10 league games we've averaged PPG 1.7

5 MASSIVE home games left, The town needs to turn out and make some noise, promotion is there for the taking.
Lincoln
Crewe
Cambridge
Morecambe
Stevenage

:coys:
Last edited by KirkbyStag2 on Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Stags 2002 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:15 pm

We have now officially played each team once. As i did last year working on the basis that if you win at home and draw away i.e take 4pts per team you'll get 92 points .Below is the road map for the remaining reverse fixtures and outcome required to secure 4pts against each team.

The defeat against Exeter means only 3pts rather than 4pts are attainable setting 91pts as the starting target.

Bury H (W) (W) +0 91pts
Swindon H (W) (D) -2 89pts
Grimsby A (D) (W) +2 91pts
Carlisle A (D) (L) -1 90pts
Yeovil H (W) (L) -3 87pts
Colchester A (W) (W) +0 87pts
Tranmere H (W) (W) +0 87pts
Macclesfield H (W) (W) +0 87pts
Newport A (D) (L) -1 86pts
Notts County A (D) (L) -1 85pts
Forest Green H (W) (W) +0 85pts
Cheltenham H (W) (W) +0 85pts
Port Vale A (D) (L) -1 84pts
Crawley A (D) (D) +0 84pts
Lincoln H (W)
Crewe H (D)
Exeter A (W)
Cambridge H (W)
Northampton A (D)
Morecambe H (D)
Oldham A (W)
Stevenage H (D)
MK Dons A (W)

9 games remain - 5 Wins 4 Draws will give us 84 points.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby tillydog123 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:21 am

Away games look like a struggle for us now and we would need to win at least couple of them and can't see us winning EVERY home game but it is there for the taking.
The MK dons result last night gives some hope but watch Tranmere coming up on the inside rail.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby spanishstag » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:24 am

tillydog123 wrote:Away games look like a struggle for us now and we would need to win at least couple of them and can't see us winning EVERY home game but it is there for the taking.
The MK dons result last night gives some hope but watch Tranmere coming up on the inside rail.


Have you seen tranny,s run in ,still think we will get autos
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby london amber stag » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:26 am

Look at Tranmere’s run-in, it is by far harder than anyone else’s. The third spot is there for the taking if we can find regular wins again, beating Lincoln would kickstart our push on Monday.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby part time pete » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:49 am

Stags 2002 wrote:We have now officially played each team once. As i did last year working on the basis that if you win at home and draw away i.e take 4pts per team you'll get 92 points .Below is the road map for the remaining reverse fixtures and outcome required to secure 4pts against each team.

The defeat against Exeter means only 3pts rather than 4pts are attainable setting 91pts as the starting target.

Bury H (W) (W) +0 91pts
Swindon H (W) (D) -2 89pts
Grimsby A (D) (W) +2 91pts
Carlisle A (D) (L) -1 90pts
Yeovil H (W) (L) -3 87pts
Colchester A (W) (W) +0 87pts
Tranmere H (W) (W) +0 87pts
Macclesfield H (W) (W) +0 87pts
Newport A (D) (L) -1 86pts
Notts County A (D) (L) -1 85pts
Forest Green H (W) (W) +0 85pts
Cheltenham H (W) (W) +0 85pts
Port Vale A (D) (L) -1 84pts
Crawley A (D) (D) +0 84pts
Lincoln H (W)
Crewe H (D)
Exeter A (W)
Cambridge H (W)
Northampton A (D)
Morecambe H (D)
Oldham A (W)
Stevenage H (D)
MK Dons A (W)

9 games remain - 5 Wins 4 Draws will give us 84 points.


So in 14 games we have lost 7 points, in another 9 games that’s another 4 or 5 pts so less than 80 pts, it’s going to be tight.
Can we play Accrington Stanley every week.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:41 am

A very detailed discussion of Mansfield, Lincoln, Bury and Franchise FC's chance of automatic promotion from Bury Me In Exile.

He points out that teams towards the top tend to improve towards the end of the season. The average points for the last ten games for the teams in the following positions is:

1st 17 points
2nd 19 points
3rd 18 points
4th 16 points
5th 16 points
6th 13 points
7th 12 points

We were a point behind Franchise FC with 10 games to go so if they gain another 18 points based on the average then we will need 20 points (or 19 points and a better goal difference). We gained a point last night so that means we need another 19 points from 9 games which takes us to the magical 84 points.

We are going to perform above average for the last 10 games to win automatic promotion which could mean averaging 2 points per game. 22 teams out of 87 winning promotion (25.2%) have managed this in the past. 4 teams in 4th place with 10 games to go in the last 19 seasons have managed this.

The good news is that we are good for a play off place according to the stats.

https://burymeinexile.com/2019/03/12/th ... promotion/
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby tillydog123 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:48 pm

I think if its play offs we will blow it, sorry can't help feeling that way
we need to go automatic.

also whilst on
Good to see Turner put a decent game in and with his pedigree he should help that defence a bit and liked his honesty in interview saying he thinks he has launched himself a bit and liked the thread of what he said and hopefully if Preston not fit in next few games he can do a job for us and has experience at a decent level.

Well done Ben last night.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Jamie » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:56 pm

The stats don't mean anything... Tranmere are on a great run, they might keep that going and catch us / MK, they are only 4 points back now... Also lets not forget last season, we were nailed on for a play-off then too, but 1 win in 12...

We have 5 home games left, we need to win them all to have a decent shout at automatic. That would give us 80 and then hopefully a few more points away from home.

Personally i can see the last automatic spot going down to the last game. I just hope if it does that we're in pole position, ie the draw favours us.

If someone had said in August you'd be playing for a point on the last day to go up automatically i think every single one of us would have taken that after last years poor finish.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby MutinyOnTheCounty » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:34 pm

tillydog123 wrote:I think if its play offs we will blow it, sorry can't help feeling that way
we need to go automatic.

also whilst on
Good to see Turner put a decent game in and with his pedigree he should help that defence a bit and liked his honesty in interview saying he thinks he has launched himself a bit and liked the thread of what he said and hopefully if Preston not fit in next few games he can do a job for us and has experience at a decent level.

Well done Ben last night.


I'm usually fairly optimistic, but thinking the same as you.

That day at the Millennium Stadium is like a gnarly old wound that refuses to fully heal. I don't think my car ever forgave for the abuse my right foot gave to the accelerator on the journey home! :P


Can any of the stattos remember the last time we won promotion via the playoffs?
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Spiritater » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:55 pm

Never.
Theirs not to reason why
Theirs but to do and die
Into the valley of Death
Rode the Six Hundred
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:08 pm

There's always a first time but hopefully we will not be having to find out. Every game is a cup final now. We need to try and win every one to keep the pressure on Bury and MK Dons.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby daddycool » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:49 pm

If we beat Lincoln we will do it .it would be a tremendous confidence builder.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Jimstag » Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:03 pm

It’s definitely getting to squeaky bum time. I have a horrible feeling it’ll go down to the last day at MK Dons.
As long as it’s all in your own hands that’s all you can ask no matter how optimistic or pessimistic you are feeling
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:55 pm

If all the teams amass the same number of points in their remaining 9/10 games as they have in their last 9/10 games, this is how the League table would end.

.................PTS
Lincoln.........92
Bury.............91
MK Dons.......83
------------------
Tranmere......80
Stags...........79
Northampton.69 (Keith Curle)
Colchester.....68

:coys:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:01 pm

Stags gained 16 points (W4 D4 L1) in this seasons games versus their 9 remaining opponents

MK Dons gained 10 points (W2 D4 L3) in this seasons games versus their 9 remaining opponents

Both Stags & MK Dons still have to play Lincoln & Stevenage at home.

Stags have to go away to Exeter & Northampton (Cobblers last 6 games W4 D2 L0)

MK Dons have to go away to Tranmere, Forest Green & Colchester (MK Dons failed to beat any of these 3 teams at home)

:coys:
Last edited by KirkbyStag2 on Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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