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Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ? (Be Wembley Winners?)

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Sneag » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:40 am

1 point worse off than this time last season & we're now at the point where we went on a run of 2 wins in 13 games.

I don't see this squad replicating that kind of collapse.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:26 pm

If we win or draw on Saturday then we will be in 2nd/3rd place with 12 games to go (better than last seson).

If we lose we could end up in 4th place with 12 games to go (same as last season).

It's redemption time for David Flitcroft. I think we will do it this time
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby part time pete » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:20 pm

When Evans left last season with 12 games left we had 60 pts. DF managed another 12 pts from them 12 games.

Today with 13 games left we have 58 pts.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:07 pm

I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion, TOP 3 finish.

Current Table
PLD.....W......D.....L......PTS.......PPG
34......16.....13....5.......61.......1.79

Required for 81 points
PLD.....W.....D.......L......PTS......PPG
12.......6......2.......4.......20......1.67
12.......5......5.......2.......20......1.67
12.......4......8.......0.......20......1.67

Based on our current PPG 1.79 we would finish on 83 points, which is usually Top 3, automatic promotion.

In our last 10 league games we've averaged PPG 1.6

Best defensive record in the division, only conceding 26 goals in 34 games.

We're now have the 2nd best home record, with only Bury 1 point ahead of us.

Stags played well yesterday and we're on track for a top 3 finish ;)

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby EdwinstoweStag » Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:10 pm

Simple solution:

Win every game.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Rob » Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:56 pm

Sneag wrote:1 point worse off than this time last season & we're now at the point where we went on a run of 2 wins in 13 games.

I don't see this squad replicating that kind of collapse.


Me neither, but injuries and suspensions are hurting us now - imagine if Preston and Bish were booked on Sat, two more out for two games. We might have to throw some of the youngsters in soon.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Marky Mark » Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:50 pm

I've had a look at what the teams who finished in the Top 3 for the last 5 years have got in points in their last 12 games:

- the team that was top after 34 games has always been promoted, finishing Top twice
- the team that was 2nd after 34 games has always been promoted
- the team finishing 3rd has been promoted 3 out of times.

So the Top 3 after 34 games in the last 5 seasons have been promoted 13 out of 15 times. The other two times were teams in 5th and 6th places. The team in 4th after 34 games hasn't been promoted in the last 5 years.

Of the 15 teams promoted, the least points any of them got in the last 12 games was 17 points, then two on 20, one on 21 and four on 22. 11 of the 15 got 22 points or more, 7 got 24 points or more. The most points was 31 (Portsmouth in 2017). The average points is 24.

The lowest points anyone has been promoted with in the last 5 years is 81 points, which were Scunthorpe and Rochdale, both in 2014, then 2 on 84 points.

Getting 81 points for anyone below MK is going to be difficult, they'd need at least 9 wins from the last 12 games, and probably 10 to be in with a chance. Its a shoot out between us and MK probably, 84 points would probably do it given that they'd need to win 9 from 12 to beat it, they've also got to go away to Colchester and FGR and have us and Lincoln at home.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:34 am

Good research Mark. :good_post:

I hope we have it all wrapped up before going to Franchise FC on the last day of the season.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Stoney » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:44 am

7 wins and a couple of draws will see us up IMO
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Amber Andy » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:50 am

The next two games without our leading scorer will be crucial. We could easily lose four points and put MK Dons in the driving seat.

If we can win both I will feel more confident of a top three finish.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:27 pm

I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion, TOP 3 finish.

Current Table
PLD.....W......D.....L......PTS.......PPG
35......17.....13....5.......64.......1.83

Required for 81 points
PLD.....W.....D.......L......PTS......PPG
11.......5......2.......4.......17......1.55
11.......4......5.......2.......17......1.55
11.......3......8.......0.......17......1.55

Based on our current PPG 1.83 we would finish on 84 points, which is usually Top 3, automatic promotion.

In our last 10 league games we've averaged PPG 1.9 :D

Should be a really good 1,000+ following at Vale Park next week, as it's only 60 mile.

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby yorkshire stag » Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:31 pm

Just don’t leave it to winner takes all at MK last game
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Johnny Rotten » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:44 pm

Well we definitely can't finish bottom two now, barring points deductions
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Jamie » Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:05 pm

Will 81 points be enough if 4 teams are going for 3 spots?
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Stags 2002 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:43 pm

Jamie wrote:Will 81 points be enough if 4 teams are going for 3 spots?


Even 85 points could be cutting it close unless someone slips up.

7 wins out of 11 gets us to 85.

We have however confirmed 22nd place. Now to press on and confirm top half.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Johnny Rotten » Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:25 am

Jamie wrote:Will 81 points be enough if 4 teams are going for 3 spots?


Having run through my own take on the outcome of all L2s remains fixtures I have us finishing 5th on 83pts with the top three on 92, 86 and 86 respectively :evil: Worse still I found out recently our lass is going to the theatre on Sat 25th May :twisted: With a three year old and 8wk old that is disappointing
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Spiritater » Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:19 am

Jamie wrote:Will 81 points be enough if 4 teams are going for 3 spots?


Very much looking like a 'who's gonna blink first' scenario. However it's ours to lose. If we match MK result for result (taking into account the now 9 point gap from us to FGR etc which is a big one to claw back) there's bogger all they can do about it.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby part time pete » Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:15 am

Spiritater wrote:
Jamie wrote:Will 81 points be enough if 4 teams are going for 3 spots?


Very much looking like a 'who's gonna blink first' scenario. However it's ours to lose. If we match MK result for result (taking into account the now 9 point gap from us to FGR etc which is a big one to claw back) there's bogger all they can do about it.



except beat us in the final game
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Spiritater » Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:22 am

But if we match MK result for result, meaning if they win we can't win that game and vice versa so it'll have to be a draw to match it up :D
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:05 am

part time pete wrote:
Spiritater wrote:
Jamie wrote:Will 81 points be enough if 4 teams are going for 3 spots?


Very much looking like a 'who's gonna blink first' scenario. However it's ours to lose. If we match MK result for result (taking into account the now 9 point gap from us to FGR etc which is a big one to claw back) there's bogger all they can do about it.



except beat us in the final game


If it does all depend on the last game of the season at least it's in a stadium with a capacity of 30,000+ and they only averaged 13,000 in the Championship.

They've previously gave Coventry 8,000 tickets.

How many do you think we'd take, 4,000 ?

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Marky Mark » Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:07 pm

…...………......…...After 34......................finish................…….......total Points..last 12.....Year

1.....Northampton Town......34....75...…….1 Northampton Town...…….99 ……….24……….2016
1.....Shrewsbury Town...…...34....64...…….1 Burton Albion...……………..94………. 30……….2015
2.....Accrington Stanley...….34....65...……..1 Accrington Stanley...…….93………. 28……….2018
2.....Burton Albion...………….34....64...…….2 Shrewsbury Town...……..89………..25……….2015
1.....Luton Town...…………….34....68...…….2 Luton Town...............….88………. 20……….2018
5.....Portsmouth...…….........34....56...…….1 Portsmouth...............….87………. 31……….2017
2.....Plymouth Argyle...……..34....65...…….2 Plymouth Argyle......…...87………. 22……….2017
2.....Oxford United......……..34....64...…….2 Oxford United.........…….86………. 22……….2016
6.....Bristol Rovers...………...34....56...…….3 Bristol Rovers......…...….85………. 29……….2016
5.....Bury...…...............…...34....58...…….3 Bury............……...……….85………. 27……….2015
1.....Doncaster Rovers...…..34....68...…….3 Doncaster Rovers...……..85………. 17……….2017
1.....Chesterfield...…………...34....62...…….1 Chesterfield...……………...84………. 22……….2014
3.....Wycombe Wanderers..34....62...…….3 Wycombe Wanderers....84………. 22……….2018
3.....Scunthorpe United......34....60...…….2 Scunthorpe United...…...81………. 21……….2014
2.....Rochdale......…………….34.....61...…….3 Rochdale......…………...….81………. 20……….2014

Did this for the last 5 years, after 34 games, obviously we're all one game further on now. We'll probably need 6/7 more wins, although might change if we beat MK/Lincoln - and that's if no-one drops off, can Bury keep up their form?. Maybe 6 wins as long as we don't lose to MK or Lincoln.

Bury last 11 games W8, D3 - 27 points
Lincoln last 11 games W4 D7 - 19 points
Us last 11 games W6 D1 L4 - 19 points
MK last 11 games W6 L5 - 18 points
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Amber Andy » Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:52 pm

It seems to have developed into a mini league of the top four teams. We need to ensure we don't achieve the worst results in the remaining fixtures amongst those four teams. Finishing third would be a great achievement.

Some may say out of the four we are the most likely to crack, based on what happened last season. However, I'm sure DF and the players will do everything they can for that not be repeated. What is different to last season is that DF knows the players more and the players know and have bought into his methods.

It should also be remembered Lincoln also missed out last season when in a good position.

I think we will do it this time.

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby SINA STAG » Sun Mar 03, 2019 1:41 pm

Looking at Lincoln games for April I'm predicting they'll finish 4th at the end of this season......
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby halifaxstag » Sun Mar 03, 2019 2:38 pm

Tranmere could have a massive effect on the finish. In their last eight matches they play Carlisle, FGR, MK and Bury at home and Colchester and Lincoln away.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Big yella » Sun Mar 03, 2019 2:50 pm

halifaxstag wrote:Tranmere could have a massive effect on the finish. In their last eight matches they play Carlisle, FGR, MK and Bury at home and Colchester and Lincoln away.

Let's hope their form continues and they take points off at least Franchise, Bury and the Imps.
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