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Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby halifaxstag » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:47 pm

Big yella wrote:
halifaxstag wrote:So in a tense finish to the season the table looks like this
Team A P45 81 pts
Team B P45 81 pts
Team C P45 81 pts
Team D P45 80 pts
Team E P45 78 pts

Teams A, B and C all assume they are going up because they have more than 80 points.

Last game of the season -Team A win-84 Team B draw-82 and Team C lose-81. Team D also lose to finish on 80 points and Team E win to finish on 81 points. Team A and Team B go up and Teams C and E also go up because they have finished above Team D and also have more than 80 points.

NOOOO
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Once again it has nothing to do with points totals after 45 games. If at the end of the season, after 46 games the team in fourth has 80 points, the team in third will have 81 or more.

The original poster is saying that if the team in fourth after 46 games has attained the average of 80 points, the team in third only has to have 81. They may well have more, in fact the average is 83. However, if fourth was only ever going to get the average of 80, they were effectively safe once they hit 81.

So take your scenario but give teams d and e 77 points after 45 games. They all win except c. Team d will have finished fourth with the average points total for that position of 80 points. Team c will have finished third on 81 points, two less than the average for that position. But they still finish third. In your exact scenario the team finishing fourth hasn’t ended the season on 80 points they have ended it on 81. Therefore the team in third had to get 82 or more.

Yes in the middle of a season if you go above fourth you become fourth, but in the final table after every game is played if you beat fourth you are at least third. If fourth is 80 points after all 46 games 81 gets you up. You are third you don’t have to beat third.


I know this, I was being facetious.
At the end of the day/season statistics are only a tool and can be interpreted in different ways. I doubt very much that the table has ever finished in an “average” position where all teams are near to the average points for the position they finish in. In my opinion the team finishing fourth this season will have more than 81 points as possibly as many as 84/85.
We just need to keep picking up points and enjoy the ride.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Martin Shaw » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:55 pm

Here's why I think 83 or 84 points would be a better assumption for 3rd place, based on the data presented from the past 7 seasons.
Bear with me...

The average points tally for 4th place over the past 7 seasons is 80.1 points from the data presented above.

The average points tally for 3rd place over the past 7 seasons is 83.1 points from the data presented above.

Let's set up a hypothetical scenario where a team gets 80 points (the nearest to 80.1) after 46 games. Let's say it's Colchester.

And to continue the hypothetical scenario, another teams gets 83 points (the nearest to 83.1) after 46 games. Let's say it's Bury.

And Lincoln get 86 points and MK Dons 85 points after 46 games.

To continue the hypothetical scenario, another team has had an issue with something or other and has been given special dispensation to play their final three games after most others have finished (and none of those three games are against teams at the top). Let's say it's Mansfield.

So the table will look like this:

1 Lincoln 46 86
2 MK Dons 46 85
3 Bury 46 83
4 Colchester 46 80
...
6 Mansfield 43 76

For Mansfield to finish in 3rd place, they will need to get 7 points from the final 3 games and get to 83 points with a better GD than Bury, or 8 points to get to 84 points if the GD isn't better.

The points tally of 4th place Colchester is not relevant to the calculation.

That is the best way I can explain why I think 83 or 84 points would be the best figure to use for 3rd place, based on the average data from the past 7 seasons.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby cassellswasmagic » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:02 pm

raspberries to this, we are gonna smash 90 points so don’t worry about it :lol:
:coys:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Big yella » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:39 pm

Martin Shaw wrote:Here's why I think 83 or 84 points would be a better assumption for 3rd place, based on the data presented from the past 7 seasons.
Bear with me...

The average points tally for 4th place over the past 7 seasons is 80.1 points from the data presented above.

The average points tally for 3rd place over the past 7 seasons is 83.1 points from the data presented above.

Let's set up a hypothetical scenario where a team gets 80 points (the nearest to 80.1) after 46 games. Let's say it's Colchester.

And to continue the hypothetical scenario, another teams gets 83 points (the nearest to 83.1) after 46 games. Let's say it's Bury.

And Lincoln get 86 points and MK Dons 85 points after 46 games.

To continue the hypothetical scenario, another team has had an issue with something or other and has been given special dispensation to play their final three games after most others have finished (and none of those three games are against teams at the top). Let's say it's Mansfield.

So the table will look like this:

1 Lincoln 46 86
2 MK Dons 46 85
3 Bury 46 83
4 Colchester 46 80
...
6 Mansfield 43 76

For Mansfield to finish in 3rd place, they will need to get 7 points from the final 3 games and get to 83 points with a better GD than Bury, or 8 points to get to 84 points if the GD isn't better.

The points tally of 4th place Colchester is not relevant to the calculation.

That is the best way I can explain why I think 83 or 84 points would be the best figure to use for 3rd place, based on the average data from the past 7 seasons.

The problem with your scenario is yet again your fourth placed team in the final table has scored more than 80 points. You are right Colchester's tally is irrelevant because they have finished 5th.

Stop making up convoluted situations. Kirkby has based his 81 points tally on fourth IN THE FINAL table, no special circumstances, every game played, THE FINAL TABLE, getting the average of 80 points. Any team with 81 points will be above fourth. Therefore at least third.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby teg41 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:28 pm

I can see both sides to this, but the way I’m thinking is that in the average season, third finishes on 83 points and fourth finishes on 80 points. If we finish on 81, then it’s not an average season. We have less points than the team finishing 3rd normally does (which would imply we’re 4th) but more than the team finishing 4th normally does (implying we’re 3rd). As the points aren’t divided up exactly like an average season since we have 81, you can’t be sure where we’ll finish.

I used to think that if 80 was the average points for 4th we’d need 81 to finish 3rd, but using the same logic, if 83 points was the average for 3rd place, then 82 points would only see us 4th. Therefore I think 83 is a better measure.

Having said all that, let’s just get 90 and then who cares :D
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Marky Mark » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:40 pm

KirkbyStag2 wrote:It's all very simple really :D

On the final table, 46 games, if you beat the average 4th placed points total, 80, you are 3rd place. You don't have to beat the 3rd place team, you are the 3rd place team.

The last time we were promoted from this division, 2001/02 season, we finished 3rd with 79 points.

I was thinking of including an assumed points total for us to be Champions, I think I might leave that for a bit :lol:

:coys:


And therein lies the problem, for some reason 4th has been used as the benchmark position when it’s the Top 3 that go up. Getting more than the average for 4th is irrelevant if you don’t get more than the average for 3rd. If you’re runnng a race and you overtake 4th place then you’re the new 4th not 3rd. If at the end of the season your points is more than the average for 4th but not as high as the average for 3 then you’re the new 4th.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Staggyfox » Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:17 pm

Brilliant.....so glad that’s all sorted and we have all got our heads around the fact that we need to finish at least third to get promoted.

On a different note, say you are in a race and overtake the person in last position...what position would you be in...?
And does this help County???
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby eggy » Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:25 pm

eggy wrote:How about we just keep winning, then we won’t need to worry about how many points the teams below us get ;)


bump :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Spiritater » Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:45 pm

Staggyfox wrote:Brilliant.....so glad that’s all sorted and we have all got our heads around the fact that we need to finish at least third to get promoted.

On a different note, say you are in a race and overtake the person in last position...what position would you be in...?
And does this help County???


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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:03 pm

The One wrote:Spiro and myself happy we have reached the magic 51 points, that's all we ask at beginning of every season


:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Tippy Tappy Football » Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:08 pm

I'm going back to the theory that 24 wins normally does the trick :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:15 pm

Marky Mark wrote:
KirkbyStag2 wrote:It's all very simple really :D

On the final table, 46 games, if you beat the average 4th placed points total, 80, you are 3rd place. You don't have to beat the 3rd place team, you are the 3rd place team.

The last time we were promoted from this division, 2001/02 season, we finished 3rd with 79 points.

I was thinking of including an assumed points total for us to be Champions, I think I might leave that for a bit :lol:

:coys:


And therein lies the problem, for some reason 4th has been used as the benchmark position when it’s the Top 3 that go up. Getting more than the average for 4th is irrelevant if you don’t get more than the average for 3rd. If you’re runnng a race and you overtake 4th place then you’re the new 4th not 3rd. If at the end of the season your points is more than the average for 4th but not as high as the average for 3 then you’re the new 4th.


The race is finished, all the team's have played 46 games, the 4th place team has 80 points.

What's the least number of points you need to finish 3rd (excluding goal average) ?

It really is that simple, 81 :D
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Marky Mark » Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:21 pm

Controlled & Clueless. If this is the big life, well I ain't looking to live it.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby tmwilson » Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:41 pm

Have you ever had that feeling when you wished you hadn't clicked on a particular thread :lol:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby bellwhiff » Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:08 pm

Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
bellwhiff wrote:Nooooooooo. We are third !! If fourth is 80 then we only need 81. Someone help him out ?



I'll try and help you belly.

How about this hypothetical league table:

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 85 points after 46 games
4th Team D 83 points after 45 games
5th Team E 81 points after 45 games

By some freak accident Team D and E face each other after the last game of the season. it is the only game.

Are you suggesting that if Team E beats Team D in that final game they get 3rd? even though they would have 83 points (3 points for a win rememeber) and 3rd finished with 85

You see 85, 89 and 90 are BIGGER numbers than 83. Hence the top 3 are the 3 sides with the most points. Remember you go above the TEAM and not the POSITION. Team E would replace Team D in 4th moving team D DOWN a place.

In that scenario the ONLY result that would take 3rd Would be a Team D WIN. They would be on 86 points and with 90, 89 and 86 being a BIGGER number than 85 Team D would overtake Team C and REPLACE them in 3rd.

Let me help you. The season is over this is the table.

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 81 points after 46 games
4th Team D 80 points after 46 games

The team in fourth has 80 points. We have 81 points. We are the team in third. We don't need to overtake anybody.

Exactly. I’m utterly aghast at the lack of understanding here.

It’ DOES’NT MATTER what the average 3rd place points total is. As long as it is us and more than 80.1. That the average is 83 is completely and utterly irrelevant.
Winning the league. Average second place points is 90. Doesn’t matter if the average winning total is 95. As long as you get more than 90 you’re champions
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby bellwhiff » Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:10 pm

Marky Mark wrote:
Big yella wrote:
Marky Mark wrote:
Big yella wrote:
Marky Mark wrote:
No, it doesnt mean that. If the team in fourth get the average points for 4th (80 points) and the team in the third get the average points for 3rd (83 points), then beating 4th only makes a difference if we beat 3rd too. If we get 82 points and the 3rd place team gets the average (83 points) then we are 4th even though we beat the average for 4th.

In that scenario WE ARE THIRD. :o
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby bellwhiff » Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:20 pm

Marky Mark wrote:
KirkbyStag2 wrote:It's all very simple really :D

On the final table, 46 games, if you beat the average 4th placed points total, 80, you are 3rd place. You don't have to beat the 3rd place team, you are the 3rd place team.

The last time we were promoted from this division, 2001/02 season, we finished 3rd with 79 points.

I was thinking of including an assumed points total for us to be Champions, I think I might leave that for a bit :lol:

:coys:


And therein lies the problem, for some reason 4th has been used as the benchmark position when it’s the Top 3 that go up. Getting more than the average for 4th is irrelevant if you don’t get more than the average for 3rd. If you’re runnng a race and you overtake 4th place then you’re the new 4th not 3rd. If at the end of the season your points is more than the average for 4th but not as high as the average for 3 then you’re the new 4th.

Completely wrong. If you get more points than fourth then you’re third at least. It’s really simple.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby The One » Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:52 pm

Wow my fave thread high jacked by stato's .
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Stafford » Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:08 am

The One wrote:Wow my fave thread high jacked by stato's .


I was thinking the same. Kirkby, can we have an update without everyone suddenly moaning about it.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Stag95 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:03 am

We're going to win the league anyway.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:33 pm

I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion, TOP 3 finish.

Current Table
PLD.....W......D.....L......PTS.......PPG
29......14.....12....3.......54.......1.86

Required for 81 points
PLD.....W.....D.......L......PTS......PPG
17.......9......0.......8.......27......1.59
17.......8......3.......6.......27......1.59
17.......7......6.......4.......27......1.59
17.......6......9.......2.......27......1.59
17.......5.....12......0.......27......1.59

Based on our current PPG 1.86 we would finish on 86 points, which is usually Top 3, automatic promotion.

In our last 10 league games we've averaged PPG 2.2 :clap:

Best defensive record in the division, only conceding 22 goals in 29 games (on average we let a goal in every 1 hour 58 minutes)

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby EdwinstoweStag » Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:00 pm

KirkbyStag2 wrote:I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion, TOP 3 finish.

Current Table
PLD.....W......D.....L......PTS.......PPG
29......14.....12....3.......54.......1.86

Required for 81 points
PLD.....W.....D.......L......PTS......PPG
17.......9......0.......8.......27......1.59
17.......8......3.......6.......27......1.59
17.......7......6.......4.......27......1.59
17.......6......9.......2.......27......1.59
17.......5.....12......0.......27......1.59

Based on our current PPG 1.86 we would finish on 86 points, which is usually Top 3, automatic promotion.

In our last 10 league games we've averaged PPG 2.2 :clap:

Best defensive record in the division, only conceding 22 goals in 29 games (on average we let a goal in every 1 hour 58 minutes)

:coys:


Yes. All right. But are we safe from relegation yet? ;)
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Stags 2002 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:37 pm

We have now officially played each team once. As i did last year working on the basis that if you win at home and draw away i.e take 4pts per team you'll get 92 points .Below is the road map for the remaining reverse fixtures and outcome required to secure 4pts against each team.

The defeat against Exeter means only 3pts rather than 4pts are attainable setting 91pts as the starting target.

Bury H (W) (W) +0 91pts
Swindon H (W) (D) -2 89pts
Grimsby A (D) (W) +2 91pts
Carlisle A (D) (L) -1 90pts
Yeovil H (W) (L) -3 87pts
Colchester A (W) (W) +0 87pts
Tranmere H (W) (W) +0 87pts
Macclesfield H (W)
Newport A (D)
Notts County A (D)
Forest Green H (W)
Cheltenham H (W)
Port Vale A (D)
Crawley A (D)
Lincoln H (W)
Crewe H (D)
Exeter A (W)
Cambridge H (W)
Northampton A (D)
Morecambe H (D)
Oldham A (W)
Stevenage H (D)
MK Dons A (W)

16 games remain - 8 Wins 8 Draws will give us 87 points.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:38 pm

I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion, TOP 3 finish.

Current Table
PLD.....W......D.....L......PTS.......PPG
30......14.....13....3.......55.......1.83

Required for 81 points
PLD.....W.....D.......L......PTS......PPG
16.......8......2.......6.......26......1.63
16.......7......5.......4.......26......1.63
16.......6......8.......2.......26......1.63
16.......5.....11......0.......26......1.63

Based on our current PPG 1.83 we would finish on 84 points, which is usually Top 3, automatic promotion.

In our last 10 league games we've averaged PPG 2.0 :clap:

Best defensive record in the division, only conceding 23 goals in 30 games.

:coys:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby part time pete » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:08 pm

So we have 16 games to go, our last 16 games have been 9W-5D-2L = 32 points (2pt a game) so 55+32 = 87pts forecast

Surely we can't mess up this season
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