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Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ? (Be Wembley Winners?)

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Big yella » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:09 am

Marky Mark wrote:
Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
bellwhiff wrote:Nooooooooo. We are third !! If fourth is 80 then we only need 81. Someone help him out ?



I'll try and help you belly.

How about this hypothetical league table:

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 85 points after 46 games
4th Team D 83 points after 45 games
5th Team E 81 points after 45 games

By some freak accident Team D and E face each other after the last game of the season. it is the only game.

Are you suggesting that if Team E beats Team D in that final game they get 3rd? even though they would have 83 points (3 points for a win rememeber) and 3rd finished with 85

You see 85, 89 and 90 are BIGGER numbers than 83. Hence the top 3 are the 3 sides with the most points. Remember you go above the TEAM and not the POSITION. Team E would replace Team D in 4th moving team D DOWN a place.

In that scenario the ONLY result that would take 3rd Would be a Team D WIN. They would be on 86 points and with 90, 89 and 86 being a BIGGER number than 85 Team D would overtake Team C and REPLACE them in 3rd.

Let me help you. The season is over this is the table.

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 81 points after 46 games
4th Team D 80 points after 46 games

The team in fourth has 80 points. We have 81 points. We are the team in third. We don't need to overtake anybody.


We aren't the team in third because, according to the data provided back in a previous page, the team in the third have 83.1 points on average and the team in 4th have 80.1 points on average, so having 81 points would put you in 4th, not third - therefore not enough for automatic promotion, that's the whole point of this - what points on average do you need to be in 3rd place? And the answer is 83.1 but because you cant get fractions of points then the answer is on average 84 points. 3rd place 83.1 points and 4th place 81.1 are your anchor points, they don't change. Anything lower than 83.1 will put you lower than 3rd place, but not in 3rd place, according to the data provided.

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 83.1 points after 46 games
4th Team D 80.1 points after 46 games

It can't be that hard. If the team in the FINAL table has 80 points. It doesn't matter if you have 81, 82, 83 or 103 points you finish above them so at least third.

If you are told before the season starts that fourth place will definitely finish on 80 points, how many points do you need? If you are third on 81 points and fourth are on 77 with one game to go, and you have a Cup Final the following week, do you rest players or do you say no we must get more than 83 points.

If after 46 games you have beaten fourth by one point you are at least third. The average for third may be 83 points, but if fourth only get the average 80 points you only need to get 81.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby gazza1988 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:14 am

Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
bellwhiff wrote:Nooooooooo. We are third !! If fourth is 80 then we only need 81. Someone help him out ?



I'll try and help you belly.

How about this hypothetical league table:

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 85 points after 46 games
4th Team D 83 points after 45 games
5th Team E 81 points after 45 games

By some freak accident Team D and E face each other after the last game of the season. it is the only game.

Are you suggesting that if Team E beats Team D in that final game they get 3rd? even though they would have 83 points (3 points for a win rememeber) and 3rd finished with 85

You see 85, 89 and 90 are BIGGER numbers than 83. Hence the top 3 are the 3 sides with the most points. Remember you go above the TEAM and not the POSITION. Team E would replace Team D in 4th moving team D DOWN a place.

In that scenario the ONLY result that would take 3rd Would be a Team D WIN. They would be on 86 points and with 90, 89 and 86 being a BIGGER number than 85 Team D would overtake Team C and REPLACE them in 3rd.

Let me help you. The season is over this is the table.

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 81 points after 46 games
4th Team D 80 points after 46 games

The team in fourth has 80 points. We have 81 points. We are the team in third. We don't need to overtake anybody.


Answer me this. What did Team C do to get docked 4 points? Also what did Team D do to be docked 3 points? Dodgy fax machine?

Team C had 85 points after all games played yet you've docked them 4?

The argument is people are claiming that climbing above the team in 4th gets you 3rd when it infact makes you 4th and the team that WAS 4th becomes 5th.

I was giving a hypothetical table because it's January and the season hasn't ended yet.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby gazza1988 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:15 am

Big yella wrote:
Marky Mark wrote:
Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
bellwhiff wrote:Nooooooooo. We are third !! If fourth is 80 then we only need 81. Someone help him out ?



I'll try and help you belly.

How about this hypothetical league table:

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 85 points after 46 games
4th Team D 83 points after 45 games
5th Team E 81 points after 45 games

By some freak accident Team D and E face each other after the last game of the season. it is the only game.

Are you suggesting that if Team E beats Team D in that final game they get 3rd? even though they would have 83 points (3 points for a win rememeber) and 3rd finished with 85

You see 85, 89 and 90 are BIGGER numbers than 83. Hence the top 3 are the 3 sides with the most points. Remember you go above the TEAM and not the POSITION. Team E would replace Team D in 4th moving team D DOWN a place.

In that scenario the ONLY result that would take 3rd Would be a Team D WIN. They would be on 86 points and with 90, 89 and 86 being a BIGGER number than 85 Team D would overtake Team C and REPLACE them in 3rd.

Let me help you. The season is over this is the table.

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 81 points after 46 games
4th Team D 80 points after 46 games

The team in fourth has 80 points. We have 81 points. We are the team in third. We don't need to overtake anybody.


We aren't the team in third because, according to the data provided back in a previous page, the team in the third have 83.1 points on average and the team in 4th have 80.1 points on average, so having 81 points would put you in 4th, not third - therefore not enough for automatic promotion, that's the whole point of this - what points on average do you need to be in 3rd place? And the answer is 83.1 but because you cant get fractions of points then the answer is on average 84 points. 3rd place 83.1 points and 4th place 81.1 are your anchor points, they don't change. Anything lower than 83.1 will put you lower than 3rd place, but not in 3rd place, according to the data provided.

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 83.1 points after 46 games
4th Team D 80.1 points after 46 games

It can't be that hard. If the team in the FINAL table has 80 points. It doesn't matter if you have 81, 82, 83 or 103 points you finish above them so at least third.

If you are told before the season starts that fourth place will definitely finish on 80 points, how many points do you need? If you are third on 81 points and fourth are on 77 with one game to go, and you have a Cup Final the following week, do you rest players or do you say no we must get more than 83 points.

If after 46 games you have beaten fourth by one point you are at least third. The average for third may be 83 points, but if fourth only get the average 80 points you only need to get 81.


And if you got the 81 points and 3rd got the 83 points you would still be 4th because 83 is a bigger number than 81.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Marky Mark » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:20 am

Big yella wrote:
Marky Mark wrote:
Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
bellwhiff wrote:Nooooooooo. We are third !! If fourth is 80 then we only need 81. Someone help him out ?



I'll try and help you belly.

How about this hypothetical league table:

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 85 points after 46 games
4th Team D 83 points after 45 games
5th Team E 81 points after 45 games

By some freak accident Team D and E face each other after the last game of the season. it is the only game.

Are you suggesting that if Team E beats Team D in that final game they get 3rd? even though they would have 83 points (3 points for a win rememeber) and 3rd finished with 85

You see 85, 89 and 90 are BIGGER numbers than 83. Hence the top 3 are the 3 sides with the most points. Remember you go above the TEAM and not the POSITION. Team E would replace Team D in 4th moving team D DOWN a place.

In that scenario the ONLY result that would take 3rd Would be a Team D WIN. They would be on 86 points and with 90, 89 and 86 being a BIGGER number than 85 Team D would overtake Team C and REPLACE them in 3rd.

Let me help you. The season is over this is the table.

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 81 points after 46 games
4th Team D 80 points after 46 games

The team in fourth has 80 points. We have 81 points. We are the team in third. We don't need to overtake anybody.


We aren't the team in third because, according to the data provided back in a previous page, the team in the third have 83.1 points on average and the team in 4th have 80.1 points on average, so having 81 points would put you in 4th, not third - therefore not enough for automatic promotion, that's the whole point of this - what points on average do you need to be in 3rd place? And the answer is 83.1 but because you cant get fractions of points then the answer is on average 84 points. 3rd place 83.1 points and 4th place 81.1 are your anchor points, they don't change. Anything lower than 83.1 will put you lower than 3rd place, but not in 3rd place, according to the data provided.

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 83.1 points after 46 games
4th Team D 80.1 points after 46 games

It can't be that hard. If the team in the FINAL table has 80 points. It doesn't matter if you have 81, 82, 83 or 103 points you finish above them so at least third.

If you are told before the season starts that fourth place will definitely finish on 80 points, how many points do you need? If you are third on 81 points and fourth are on 77 with one game to go, and you have a Cup Final the following week, do you rest players or do you say no we must get more than 83 points.

If after 46 games you have beaten fourth by one point you are at least third. The average for third may be 83 points, but if fourth only get the average 80 points you only need to get 81.


Ok then, in the example there - the top 4 teams have the average points of the finishers in the last 7 seasons - the team in fourth has the average fourth place points of 80.1 points, the team in third has the average third place points of 83.1 points, you aim to beat the fourth by one point giving you 81.1 points, what place are you?
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Big yella » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:24 am

gazza1988 wrote:
Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
bellwhiff wrote:Nooooooooo. We are third !! If fourth is 80 then we only need 81. Someone help him out ?



I'll try and help you belly.

How about this hypothetical league table:

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 85 points after 46 games
4th Team D 83 points after 45 games
5th Team E 81 points after 45 games

By some freak accident Team D and E face each other after the last game of the season. it is the only game.

Are you suggesting that if Team E beats Team D in that final game they get 3rd? even though they would have 83 points (3 points for a win rememeber) and 3rd finished with 85

You see 85, 89 and 90 are BIGGER numbers than 83. Hence the top 3 are the 3 sides with the most points. Remember you go above the TEAM and not the POSITION. Team E would replace Team D in 4th moving team D DOWN a place.

In that scenario the ONLY result that would take 3rd Would be a Team D WIN. They would be on 86 points and with 90, 89 and 86 being a BIGGER number than 85 Team D would overtake Team C and REPLACE them in 3rd.

Let me help you. The season is over this is the table.

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 81 points after 46 games
4th Team D 80 points after 46 games

The team in fourth has 80 points. We have 81 points. We are the team in third. We don't need to overtake anybody.


Answer me this. What did Team C do to get docked 4 points? Also what did Team D do to be docked 3 points? Dodgy fax machine?

Team C had 85 points after all games played yet you've docked them 4?

The argument is people are claiming that climbing above the team in 4th gets you 3rd when it infact makes you 4th and the team that WAS 4th becomes 5th.

I was giving a hypothetical table because it's January and the season hasn't ended yet.

This is not about a table in mid season when positions change. This is about the FINAL table.

The original poster worked out that on average at the END of the season the team in fourth has 80 points. If that were to happen and after 46 games the team in fourth has the said 80 points any team with more points therefore 81 or above must finish at least third.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Big yella » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:41 am

Marky Mark wrote:
Big yella wrote:
Marky Mark wrote:
Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:

I'll try and help you belly.

How about this hypothetical league table:

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 85 points after 46 games
4th Team D 83 points after 45 games
5th Team E 81 points after 45 games

By some freak accident Team D and E face each other after the last game of the season. it is the only game.

Are you suggesting that if Team E beats Team D in that final game they get 3rd? even though they would have 83 points (3 points for a win rememeber) and 3rd finished with 85

You see 85, 89 and 90 are BIGGER numbers than 83. Hence the top 3 are the 3 sides with the most points. Remember you go above the TEAM and not the POSITION. Team E would replace Team D in 4th moving team D DOWN a place.

In that scenario the ONLY result that would take 3rd Would be a Team D WIN. They would be on 86 points and with 90, 89 and 86 being a BIGGER number than 85 Team D would overtake Team C and REPLACE them in 3rd.

Let me help you. The season is over this is the table.

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 81 points after 46 games
4th Team D 80 points after 46 games

The team in fourth has 80 points. We have 81 points. We are the team in third. We don't need to overtake anybody.


We aren't the team in third because, according to the data provided back in a previous page, the team in the third have 83.1 points on average and the team in 4th have 80.1 points on average, so having 81 points would put you in 4th, not third - therefore not enough for automatic promotion, that's the whole point of this - what points on average do you need to be in 3rd place? And the answer is 83.1 but because you cant get fractions of points then the answer is on average 84 points. 3rd place 83.1 points and 4th place 81.1 are your anchor points, they don't change. Anything lower than 83.1 will put you lower than 3rd place, but not in 3rd place, according to the data provided.

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 83.1 points after 46 games
4th Team D 80.1 points after 46 games

It can't be that hard. If the team in the FINAL table has 80 points. It doesn't matter if you have 81, 82, 83 or 103 points you finish above them so at least third.

If you are told before the season starts that fourth place will definitely finish on 80 points, how many points do you need? If you are third on 81 points and fourth are on 77 with one game to go, and you have a Cup Final the following week, do you rest players or do you say no we must get more than 83 points.

[byyIf after 46 games you have beaten fourth by one point you are at least third. The average for third may be 83 points, but if fourth only get the average 80 points you only need to get 81[/b].


Ok then, in the example there - the top 4 teams have the average points of the finishers in the last 7 seasons - the team in fourth has the average fourth place points of 80.1 points, the team in third has the average third place points of 83.1 points, you aim to beat the fourth by one point giving you 81.1 points, what place are you?

As I have said if the team in fourth has 80 points in the FINAL table any team with 81 points must finish above them. They are the team in third. They will have failed to reach the average points for third but they will still finish above fourth who only got 80 points in the FINAL table.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby gazza1988 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:46 am

Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
bellwhiff wrote:Nooooooooo. We are third !! If fourth is 80 then we only need 81. Someone help him out ?



I'll try and help you belly.

How about this hypothetical league table:

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 85 points after 46 games
4th Team D 83 points after 45 games
5th Team E 81 points after 45 games

By some freak accident Team D and E face each other after the last game of the season. it is the only game.

Are you suggesting that if Team E beats Team D in that final game they get 3rd? even though they would have 83 points (3 points for a win rememeber) and 3rd finished with 85

You see 85, 89 and 90 are BIGGER numbers than 83. Hence the top 3 are the 3 sides with the most points. Remember you go above the TEAM and not the POSITION. Team E would replace Team D in 4th moving team D DOWN a place.

In that scenario the ONLY result that would take 3rd Would be a Team D WIN. They would be on 86 points and with 90, 89 and 86 being a BIGGER number than 85 Team D would overtake Team C and REPLACE them in 3rd.

Let me help you. The season is over this is the table.

1st Team A 90points after 46 games
2nd Team B 89points after 46 games
3rd Team C 81 points after 46 games
4th Team D 80 points after 46 games

The team in fourth has 80 points. We have 81 points. We are the team in third. We don't need to overtake anybody.


Answer me this. What did Team C do to get docked 4 points? Also what did Team D do to be docked 3 points? Dodgy fax machine?

Team C had 85 points after all games played yet you've docked them 4?

The argument is people are claiming that climbing above the team in 4th gets you 3rd when it infact makes you 4th and the team that WAS 4th becomes 5th.

I was giving a hypothetical table because it's January and the season hasn't ended yet.

This is not about a table in mid season when positions change. This is about the FINAL table.

The original poster worked out that on average at the END of the season the team in fourth has 80 points. If that were to happen and after 46 games the team in fourth has the said 80 points any team with more points therefore 81 or above must finish at least third.


How many games are in a league season? 46 (forty-six) hence hypothetical league table at the end of the season.

For a team to take 3rd they have to have the 3rd highest points total. If a team has 80 points and the team in 3rd has 83 how can a team that earns 81 points be 3rd if 3rd has 83 points???????

HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE.

If we are talking about all teams gaining the average for the position they are in then 81 wouldn't me enough.

However 3rd could have 80 points, same as 4th and still finish 3rd on goal difference. So not always must have more points than 4th.

What you have to realise is people are claiming that a team in 4th has 80 points and if a team gained 81 point would overtake them to 3rd. Which is simply not true. A match must be played for a team to gain extra points.

I do appreciate that when all games are played that 3rd would have either gained more points, had better goal difference, scored more goals, or had a better head to head results than 4th but people have put the argument out that a team in 4th with 80 points can be overtaken to 3rd by a team who gets 81 points. For that to happen a match must be played and points must be gained. Which is what I am arguing
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Marky Mark » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:54 am

It doesn't matter about any table at any point of this season when projecting what you need to do this season, because the averages are based on the past tables - you are using the past tables to understand what points you might have to get this season. The average points scores for positions 1-24 in League 2 will already be able to be worked out. That's the whole point of using a past points average to project what you might need to do this season, otherwise you're just picking numbers out of the air.

The average points of teams in the past will not and cannot change, therefore the average points of teams that have finished 4th place in the past 7 seasons is 81.1 points, the average points of the teams that finished 3rd is 83.1. So therefore if you wanted to understand back in August what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League Two history, then the answer is probably over 83, if you wanted to understand back in September what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League 2 history, then the answer is probably over 83, if you wanted to understand back in October what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League 2 history, then the answer is probably over 83, if you wanted to understand back at Christmas what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League 2 history, then the answer is probably over 83, if you wanted to understand tomorrow what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League Two history, then the answer is probably over 83.

If you wanted to understand tomorrow what position you'd probably attain if you got 81.1 points then the answer is probably 4th, and if you get 1 more point than this then you'll probably still finish 4th because the average points 3rd place gets is 83.1 The same as it has always been since the start of this season when it comes to projecting where you might finish this season. The only way this projection could change is if someone is investing in an analytical tool that understands relative positions and points tallies and runs queries based on this - which I'm presuming no-one is doing.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Big yella » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:11 am

gazza1988 wrote:
Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
Answer me this. What did Team C do to get docked 4 points? Also what did Team D do to be docked 3 points? Dodgy fax machine?

Team C had 85 points after all games played yet you've docked them 4?

The argument is people are claiming that climbing above the team in 4th gets you 3rd when it infact makes you 4th and the team that WAS 4th becomes 5th.

I was giving a hypothetical table because it's January and the season hasn't ended yet.

This is not about a table in mid season when positions change. This is about the FINAL table.

The original poster worked out that on average at the END of the season the team in fourth has 80 points. If that were to happen and after 46 games the team in fourth has the said 80 points any team with more points therefore 81 or above must finish at least third.


How many games are in a league season? 46 (forty-six) hence hypothetical league table at the end of the season.

For a team to take 3rd they have to have the 3rd highest points total. If a team has 80 points and the team in 3rd has 83 how can a team that earns 81 points be 3rd if 3rd has 83 points???????

HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE.

If we are talking about all teams gaining the average for the position they are in then 81 wouldn't me enough.

However 3rd could have 80 points, same as 4th and still finish 3rd on goal difference. So not always must have more points than 4th.

What you have to realise is people are claiming that a team in 4th has 80 points and if a team gained 81 point would overtake them to 3rd. Which is simply not true. A match must be played for a team to gain extra points.

I do appreciate that when all games are played that 3rd would have either gained more points, had better goal difference, scored more goals, or had a better head to head results than 4th but people have put the argument out that a team in 4th with 80 points can be overtaken to 3rd by a team who gets 81 points. For that to happen a match must be played and points must be gained. Which is what I am arguing

The season is over. The team in fourth has 80 points. They are fourth. They have missed out on the automatic promotion places by one place. We have 81 points. We have failed to reach the average 83 points for third but we have one more point than the team in fourth. Are we above fourth or below fourth?
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Marky Mark » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:20 am

Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
Big yella wrote:
gazza1988 wrote:
Big yella wrote:This is not about a table in mid season when positions change. This is about the FINAL table.

The original poster worked out that on average at the END of the season the team in fourth has 80 points. If that were to happen and after 46 games the team in fourth has the said 80 points any team with more points therefore 81 or above must finish at least third.


How many games are in a league season? 46 (forty-six) hence hypothetical league table at the end of the season.

For a team to take 3rd they have to have the 3rd highest points total. If a team has 80 points and the team in 3rd has 83 how can a team that earns 81 points be 3rd if 3rd has 83 points???????

HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE.

If we are talking about all teams gaining the average for the position they are in then 81 wouldn't me enough.

However 3rd could have 80 points, same as 4th and still finish 3rd on goal difference. So not always must have more points than 4th.

What you have to realise is people are claiming that a team in 4th has 80 points and if a team gained 81 point would overtake them to 3rd. Which is simply not true. A match must be played for a team to gain extra points.

I do appreciate that when all games are played that 3rd would have either gained more points, had better goal difference, scored more goals, or had a better head to head results than 4th but people have put the argument out that a team in 4th with 80 points can be overtaken to 3rd by a team who gets 81 points. For that to happen a match must be played and points must be gained. Which is what I am arguing

The season is over. The team in fourth has 80 points. They are fourth. They have missed out on the automatic promotion places by one place. We have 81 points. We have failed to reach the average 83 points for third but we have one more point than the team in fourth. Are we above fourth or below fourth?


But you're just plucking numbers out of the air. The facts are, and that is what this whole thing has been about, that the average points that 4th place has got in the last 7 years is 81.1, the average points that 3rd place has got is 83.1. Bearing all of this in mind what place will you come if you get 81 points? Then you'll finish 5th, because 4th will have 81.1 and 3rd will have 83.1. If you get 82 then you'll finish 4th because its more than 81.1 but less than 83.1.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Big yella » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:24 am

Marky Mark wrote:It doesn't matter about any table at any point of this season when projecting what you need to do this season, because the averages are based on the past tables - you are using the past tables to understand what points you might have to get this season. The average points scores for positions 1-24 in League 2 will already be able to be worked out. That's the whole point of using a past points average to project what you might need to do this season, otherwise you're just picking numbers out of the air.

The average points of teams in the past will not and cannot change, therefore the average points of teams that have finished 4th place in the past 7 seasons is 81.1 points, the average points of the teams that finished 3rd is 83.1. So therefore if you wanted to understand back in August what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League Two history, then the answer is probably over 83, if you wanted to understand back in September what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League 2 history, then the answer is probably over 83, if you wanted to understand back in October what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League 2 history, then the answer is probably over 83, if you wanted to understand back at Christmas what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League 2 history, then the answer is probably over 83, if you wanted to understand tomorrow what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League Two history, then the answer is probably over 83.

If you wanted to understand tomorrow what position you'd probably attain if you got 81.1 points then the answer is probably 4th, and if you get 1 more point than this then you'll probably still finish 4th because the average points 3rd place gets is 83.1 The same as it has always been since the start of this season when it comes to projecting where you might finish this season. The only way this projection could change is if someone is investing in an analytical tool that understands relative positions and points tallies and runs queries based on this - which I'm presuming no-one is doing.

The original poster worked out that the team that finished fourth for the last few seasons has averaged 80 points. If in the final table in May the team in fourth has that 80 points. How many do you need to finish above them.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Marky Mark » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:27 am

Big yella wrote:
Marky Mark wrote:It doesn't matter about any table at any point of this season when projecting what you need to do this season, because the averages are based on the past tables - you are using the past tables to understand what points you might have to get this season. The average points scores for positions 1-24 in League 2 will already be able to be worked out. That's the whole point of using a past points average to project what you might need to do this season, otherwise you're just picking numbers out of the air.

The average points of teams in the past will not and cannot change, therefore the average points of teams that have finished 4th place in the past 7 seasons is 81.1 points, the average points of the teams that finished 3rd is 83.1. So therefore if you wanted to understand back in August what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League Two history, then the answer is probably over 83, if you wanted to understand back in September what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League 2 history, then the answer is probably over 83, if you wanted to understand back in October what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League 2 history, then the answer is probably over 83, if you wanted to understand back at Christmas what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League 2 history, then the answer is probably over 83, if you wanted to understand tomorrow what points you'd probably need to get in 3rd place, based upon the facts of League Two history, then the answer is probably over 83.

If you wanted to understand tomorrow what position you'd probably attain if you got 81.1 points then the answer is probably 4th, and if you get 1 more point than this then you'll probably still finish 4th because the average points 3rd place gets is 83.1 The same as it has always been since the start of this season when it comes to projecting where you might finish this season. The only way this projection could change is if someone is investing in an analytical tool that understands relative positions and points tallies and runs queries based on this - which I'm presuming no-one is doing.

The original poster worked out that the team that finished fourth for the last few seasons has averaged 80 points. If in the final table in May the team in fourth has that 80 points. How many do you need to finish above them.


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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Big yella » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:33 am

Marky Mark wrote:
Big yella wrote:[

But you're just plucking numbers out of the air. The facts are, and that is what this whole thing has been about, that the average points that 4th place has got in the last 7 years is 81.1, the average points that 3rd place has got is 83.1. Bearing all of this in mind what place will you come if you get 81 points? Then you'll finish 5th, because 4th will have 81.1 and 3rd will have 83.1. If you get 82 then you'll finish 4th because its more than 81.1 but less than 83.1.

I'm not plucking anything out of the air. The average for fourth for the last 7 years is 80.1 points. If fourth gets that average again this season anyone with more points must finish at least third. Yes if third has 82 points and someone has 80 points and we have 81 we finish fourth. But then the team finishing fourth will not have finished on 80 points will they, they will have finished on 81 points.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Bros » Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:08 am

There are lies damn lies and statistics. Lets just bask in the knowledge that we're going to get 90 points and win the league
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Stag95 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:07 am

Jesus H Christ I used to like this thread, what a load of crap those last 2 pages are.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Sneag » Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:52 am

So let me get this straight. You have a fox, a chicken, a bag of corn and a rowing boat, which one gets to London first travelling at 30 mph? The ton of feathers or the ton of coal?

Is the answer 42?
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby halifaxstag » Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:52 am

So in a tense finish to the season the table looks like this
Team A P45 81 pts
Team B P45 81 pts
Team C P45 81 pts
Team D P45 80 pts
Team E P45 78 pts

Teams A, B and C all assume they are going up because they have more than 80 points.

Last game of the season -Team A win-84 Team B draw-82 and Team C lose-81. Team D also lose to finish on 80 points and Team E win to finish on 81 points. Team A and Team B go up and Teams C and E also go up because they have finished above Team D and also have more than 80 points.

NOOOO
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Spiritater » Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:55 am

Sneag wrote:So let me get this straight. You have a fox, a chicken, a bag of corn and a rowing boat, which one gets to London first travelling at 30 mph? The ton of feathers or the ton of coal?

Is the answer 42?


I think the fox gets there first as he's first on your list and so has a micro second head start.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby PRL13 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:06 am

Doh!
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Big yella » Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:34 am

halifaxstag wrote:So in a tense finish to the season the table looks like this
Team A P45 81 pts
Team B P45 81 pts
Team C P45 81 pts
Team D P45 80 pts
Team E P45 78 pts

Teams A, B and C all assume they are going up because they have more than 80 points.

Last game of the season -Team A win-84 Team B draw-82 and Team C lose-81. Team D also lose to finish on 80 points and Team E win to finish on 81 points. Team A and Team B go up and Teams C and E also go up because they have finished above Team D and also have more than 80 points.

NOOOO
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Once again it has nothing to do with points totals after 45 games. If at the end of the season, after 46 games the team in fourth has 80 points, the team in third will have 81 or more.

The original poster is saying that if the team in fourth after 46 games has attained the average of 80 points, the team in third only has to have 81. They may well have more, in fact the average is 83. However, if fourth was only ever going to get the average of 80, they were effectively safe once they hit 81.

So take your scenario but give teams d and e 77 points after 45 games. They all win except c. Team d will have finished fourth with the average points total for that position of 80 points. Team c will have finished third on 81 points, two less than the average for that position. But they still finish third. In your exact scenario the team finishing fourth hasn’t ended the season on 80 points they have ended it on 81. Therefore the team in third had to get 82 or more.

Yes in the middle of a season if you go above fourth you become fourth, but in the final table after every game is played if you beat fourth you are at least third. If fourth is 80 points after all 46 games 81 gets you up. You are third you don’t have to beat third.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Amberheart » Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:45 am

Aaaahhhhhhhh please stop my brain hurts ! :lol:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby jr senior » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:11 pm

I'm fast losing the will to live with all these arithmetic sums, the bottom line is..........

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:28 pm

It's all very simple really :D

On the final table, 46 games, if you beat the average 4th placed points total, 80, you are 3rd place. You don't have to beat the 3rd place team, you are the 3rd place team.

The last time we were promoted from this division, 2001/02 season, we finished 3rd with 79 points.

I was thinking of including an assumed points total for us to be Champions, I think I might leave that for a bit :lol:

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Big yella » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:35 pm

KirkbyStag2 wrote:It's all very simple really :D

On the final table, 46 games, if you beat the average 4th placed points total, 80, you are 3rd place. You don't have to beat the 3rd place team, you are the 3rd place team.

The last time we were promoted from this division, 2001/02 season, we finished 3rd with 79 points.

I was thinking of including an assumed points total for us to be Champions, I think I might leave that for a bit :lol:

:coys:

Exactly what I have been saying.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:37 pm

Big yella wrote:
KirkbyStag2 wrote:It's all very simple really :D

On the final table, 46 games, if you beat the average 4th placed points total, 80, you are 3rd place. You don't have to beat the 3rd place team, you are the 3rd place team.

The last time we were promoted from this division, 2001/02 season, we finished 3rd with 79 points.

I was thinking of including an assumed points total for us to be Champions, I think I might leave that for a bit :lol:

:coys:

Exactly what I have been saying.


Spot on ;)
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