Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ? (Be Wembley Winners?)

[Martin Shaw]

The average points tally for 4th place over the past 7 seasons is 80.1 points from the data above.

So if you finish around 80/81 points, you'll probably finish around 4th if the past 7 seasons are a good predictor.

The average points tally for 3rd place over the past 7 seasons is 83.1 points from the data above.

So if you finish around 83/84 points, you'll probably finish around 3rd if the past 7 seasons are a good predictor.

Hence your assumption

I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion, TOP 3 finish.

is not a good one.

[bellwhiff]

The average points tally for 4th place over the past 7 seasons is 80.1 points from the data above.

So if you finish around 80/81 points, you'll probably finish around 4th if the past 7 seasons are a good predictor.

The average points tally for 3rd place over the past 7 seasons is 83.1 points from the data above.

So if you finish around 83/84 points, you'll probably finish around 3rd if the past 7 seasons are a good predictor.

Hence your assumption

I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion, TOP 3 finish.

is not a good one.

If the average fourth place finish is 80.1 then surely the average needed for third is 80.2?
So 81 is correct? It doesn’t matter what the average third place finish total is. It’s just got to be better than fourth.

[Martin Shaw]

If you're not convinced by my argument, then look at it a different way.

Someone listed the number of points the 4th placed team achieved in the last 7 years:
2018 - 80pts
2017 - 77pts
2016 - 85pts
2015 - 84pts
2014 - 76pts
2013 - 76pts
2012 - 83pts

In three of those seasons, the 4th placed team got more than 81 points.

Again the assumption "I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion" doesn't look like a good one to me.

I would use the figure 84 points, or possibly 83.

[I am Spartacus]

The answer to the question on this thread is definitely- Yes!

[bellwhiff]

If you're not convinced by my argument, then look at it a different way.

Someone listed the number of points the 4th placed team achieved in the last 7 years:
2018 - 80pts
2017 - 77pts
2016 - 85pts
2015 - 84pts
2014 - 76pts
2013 - 76pts
2012 - 83pts

In three of those seasons, the 4th placed team got more than 81 points.

Again the assumption "I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion" doesn't look like a good one to me.

I would use the figure 84 points, or possibly 83.

So in the majority of the 7 years it was enough.

Sorted.

[Big yella]

If you're not convinced by my argument, then look at it a different way.

Someone listed the number of points the 4th placed team achieved in the last 7 years:
2018 - 80pts
2017 - 77pts
2016 - 85pts
2015 - 84pts
2014 - 76pts
2013 - 76pts
2012 - 83pts

In three of those seasons, the 4th placed team got more than 81 points.

Again the assumption "I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion" doesn't look like a good one to me.

I would use the figure 84 points, or possibly 83.

So in the majority of the 7 years it was enough.

Sorted.

However Martin, it has happened six times in the last twenty years that 81 points has not been enough to claim third. One of those occasions 81 points lost out on goal difference.

The last 20 seasons have seen third place attain an average of 82.05 points and fourth get an average of 78.8. So I would think it a fair to assume 81 points will be enough.

[Tippy Tappy Football]

You usually need at least 24 wins for promotion so we will need another 12 wins from 18 games after today (currently 2-0 down against Col U). The only exceptions in the last five seasons have been Scunthorpe (20W 21D 5L - 81 points) and the Spireites (23W 15D 8W - 84 points).

[eggy]

How about we just keep winning, then we won’t need to worry about how many points the teams below us get

[Dave Wayne]

You usually need at least 24 wins for promotion so we will need another 12 wins from 18 games after today (currently 2-0 down against Col U). The only exceptions in the last five seasons have been Scunthorpe (20W 21D 5L - 81 points) and the Spireites (23W 15D 8W - 84 points).

You are forgetting that we have drawn a lot more than most of those promoted teams did. Having now won today, your suggestion is that we would still need 11 more wins from the remaining 18 games. That would take us to 84 points which everyone seems to agree will be enough to go up. Therefore, your assumption is that we will lose every game that we don't win ?

[KirkbyStag2]

I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion, TOP 3 finish.

Current Table
PLD.....W......D.....L......PTS.......PPG
28......13.....12....3.......51.......1.82

Required for 81 points
PLD.....W.....D.......L......PTS......PPG
18......10.....0.......8.......30.......1.67
18.......9......3.......6.......30.......1.67
18.......8......6.......4.......30.......1.67
18.......7......9.......2.......30.......1.67
18.......6.....12......0.......30.......1.67

Based on our current PPG 1.82 we would finish on 84 points, which is usually Top 3, automatic promotion.

In our last 10 league games we've averaged PPG 2.0

Best defensive record in the division, only conceding 22 goals in 28 games

[Tippy Tappy Football]

We only need 11 wins now. I'd rather focus on wins than blooming draws.

We have some tough games coming up. Wins against Tranmere, FGR and County (away) would be massive.

[Sedgwick]

If you're not convinced by my argument, then look at it a different way.

Someone listed the number of points the 4th placed team achieved in the last 7 years:
2018 - 80pts
2017 - 77pts
2016 - 85pts
2015 - 84pts
2014 - 76pts
2013 - 76pts
2012 - 83pts

In three of those seasons, the 4th placed team got more than 81 points.

Again the assumption "I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion" doesn't look like a good one to me.

I would use the figure 84 points, or possibly 83.

I like your commentary but the constant need to be right about everything like this, give it a rest.... 81 points to most football fans would be seen as good assumption for promotion. Hes assumed 81 rather than 83 so what.

[ST4GS]

Every season is different. We can't assume anything.

[bellwhiff]

If you're not convinced by my argument, then look at it a different way.

Someone listed the number of points the 4th placed team achieved in the last 7 years:
2018 - 80pts
2017 - 77pts
2016 - 85pts
2015 - 84pts
2014 - 76pts
2013 - 76pts
2012 - 83pts

In three of those seasons, the 4th placed team got more than 81 points.

Again the assumption "I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion" doesn't look like a good one to me.

I would use the figure 84 points, or possibly 83.

I like your commentary but the constant need to be right about everything like this, give it a rest.... 81 points to most football fans would be seen as good assumption for promotion. Hes assumed 81 rather than 83 so what.

Quite. Martin hasn’t ever been wrong

[Marky Mark]

The average points tally for 4th place over the past 7 seasons is 80.1 points from the data above.

So if you finish around 80/81 points, you'll probably finish around 4th if the past 7 seasons are a good predictor.

The average points tally for 3rd place over the past 7 seasons is 83.1 points from the data above.

So if you finish around 83/84 points, you'll probably finish around 3rd if the past 7 seasons are a good predictor.

Hence your assumption

I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion, TOP 3 finish.

is not a good one.

If the average fourth place finish is 80.1 then surely the average needed for third is 80.2?
So 81 is correct? It doesn’t matter what the average third place finish total is. It’s just got to be better than fourth.

If the average for third is 83.1 and the average for 4th is 80.1 then if you get 81 you're still 4th but you just raise the average of 4th, 3rd is still 83.1

[Marky Mark]

If you're not convinced by my argument, then look at it a different way.

Someone listed the number of points the 4th placed team achieved in the last 7 years:
2018 - 80pts
2017 - 77pts
2016 - 85pts
2015 - 84pts
2014 - 76pts
2013 - 76pts
2012 - 83pts

In three of those seasons, the 4th placed team got more than 81 points.

Again the assumption "I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion" doesn't look like a good one to me.

I would use the figure 84 points, or possibly 83.

I like your commentary but the constant need to be right about everything like this, give it a rest.... 81 points to most football fans would be seen as good assumption for promotion. Hes assumed 81 rather than 83 so what.

Quite. Martin hasn’t ever been wrong

Thats because hes right though, those points totals are for 4th place, so 81 points in 3 of the last 7 years wouldnt have been good enough for 4th, let alone 3rd. And in one of the others 81 would have been good enough for joint 3rd at the very very best. If those points were for 3rd then you might just about be able to say that 81 would be enough.

[Big yella]

If you're not convinced by my argument, then look at it a different way.

Someone listed the number of points the 4th placed team achieved in the last 7 years:
2018 - 80pts
2017 - 77pts
2016 - 85pts
2015 - 84pts
2014 - 76pts
2013 - 76pts
2012 - 83pts

In three of those seasons, the 4th placed team got more than 81 points.

Again the assumption "I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion" doesn't look like a good one to me.

I would use the figure 84 points, or possibly 83.

I like your commentary but the constant need to be right about everything like this, give it a rest.... 81 points to most football fans would be seen as good assumption for promotion. Hes assumed 81 rather than 83 so what.

Quite. Martin hasn’t ever been wrong

Thats because hes right though, those points totals are for 4th place, so 81 points in 3 of the last 7 years wouldnt have been good enough for 4th, let alone 3rd. And in one of the others 81 would have been good enough for joint 3rd at the very very best. If those points were for 3rd then you might just about be able to say that 81 would be enough.

81 points has only failed to get third six times in the last twenty years, and on one of those it was by goal difference. Lies, damn lies and statistics.

[BH_Stag]

I don’t get everyone’s point? If 80.1 points is the average for 4th place then surely 81 points should be the assumed target to go up, you only need to beat that by 1 point. You don’t need to match 3rd place, just beat 4th.

[Marky Mark]

If you're not convinced by my argument, then look at it a different way.

Someone listed the number of points the 4th placed team achieved in the last 7 years:
2018 - 80pts
2017 - 77pts
2016 - 85pts
2015 - 84pts
2014 - 76pts
2013 - 76pts
2012 - 83pts

In three of those seasons, the 4th placed team got more than 81 points.

Again the assumption "I'm assuming 81 points will be enough for automatic promotion" doesn't look like a good one to me.

I would use the figure 84 points, or possibly 83.

I like your commentary but the constant need to be right about everything like this, give it a rest.... 81 points to most football fans would be seen as good assumption for promotion. Hes assumed 81 rather than 83 so what.

Quite. Martin hasn’t ever been wrong

Thats because hes right though, those points totals are for 4th place, so 81 points in 3 of the last 7 years wouldnt have been good enough for 4th, let alone 3rd. And in one of the others 81 would have been good enough for joint 3rd at the very very best. If those points were for 3rd then you might just about be able to say that 81 would be enough.

81 points has only failed to get third six times in the last twenty years, and on one of those it was by goal difference. Lies, damn lies and statistics.

One of us is going to have to check our numbers then BY because by my reckoning 81 points would have failed to get third 10 times out of the last 18, and failed every season since 2013. 81 would definitely have been at least 3rd only 5 times in the last 18 (one of those was ourselves with 79 points), and joint 3rd 3 times in 18.

[Marky Mark]

I don’t get everyone’s point? If 80.1 points is the average for 4th place then surely 81 points should be the assumed target to go up, you only need to beat that by 1 point. You don’t need to match 3rd place, just beat 4th.

What happens to the team in third place then? Do they just disappear?

[BH_Stag]

I don’t get everyone’s point? If 80.1 points is the average for 4th place then surely 81 points should be the assumed target to go up, you only need to beat that by 1 point. You don’t need to match 3rd place, just beat 4th.

What happens to the team in third place then? Do they just disappear?

That’s a fair point

Personally I think 83/84 points will be enough, every year is different though of course. You do only have to beat the 4th place total, not 3rd.

[Marky Mark]

I don’t get everyone’s point? If 80.1 points is the average for 4th place then surely 81 points should be the assumed target to go up, you only need to beat that by 1 point. You don’t need to match 3rd place, just beat 4th.

What happens to the team in third place then? Do they just disappear?

That’s a fair point

Personally I think 83/84 points will be enough, every year is different though of course. You do only have to beat the 4th place total, not 3rd.

You don't only have to beat 4th place to make it to 3rd, you have to beat 3rd place to make it to 3rd. If you beat 4th but not 3rd then you'll be 4th. The confusion lies in the fact that the numbers quoted are numbers for 4th place for some reason. It doesnt matter what 4th place does, its what 3rd place does that's important. Beating 4th just means that you take their place as 4th place, there will still be a team in 3rd.

[Big yella]

I don’t get everyone’s point? If 80.1 points is the average for 4th place then surely 81 points should be the assumed target to go up, you only need to beat that by 1 point. You don’t need to match 3rd place, just beat 4th.

What happens to the team in third place then? Do they just disappear?

That’s a fair point

Personally I think 83/84 points will be enough, every year is different though of course. You do only have to beat the 4th place total, not 3rd.

You don't only have to beat 4th place to make it to 3rd, you have to beat 3rd place to make it to 3rd. If you beat 4th but not 3rd then you'll be 4th. The confusion lies in the fact that the numbers quoted are numbers for 4th place for some reason. It doesnt matter what 4th place does, its what 3rd place does that's important. Beating 4th just means that you take their place as 4th place, there will still be a team in 3rd.

It is a matter of opinion as to how you look at the figures. Your view is valid, but so is the original posters, in that if the team in fourth reached the average of 80 points and you get 81 then you are the third placed team and don't have to beat third.

[bellwhiff]

I don’t get everyone’s point? If 80.1 points is the average for 4th place then surely 81 points should be the assumed target to go up, you only need to beat that by 1 point. You don’t need to match 3rd place, just beat 4th.

Exactly.

[bellwhiff]

I don’t get everyone’s point? If 80.1 points is the average for 4th place then surely 81 points should be the assumed target to go up, you only need to beat that by 1 point. You don’t need to match 3rd place, just beat 4th.

What happens to the team in third place then? Do they just disappear?

Eh ? This is assuming that we get third. All we would need is more points than 4th.