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Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Wed Feb 21, 2024 5:47 pm

Stags now bookies slight favourites to win the league,

Champions

Stags.......6/5
Stockport..6/4
Wrexham..3/1
Crewe.....66/1
MK Dons..66/1

To gain promotion

Stags........1/16
Stockport..1/16
Wrexham...1/5
MK Dons....7/4
Crewe.......5/2
Barrow......5/2
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby stag324 » Wed Feb 21, 2024 6:50 pm

See the bookies favour us more for promotion than a lot of fans on here
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Sneag » Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:49 pm

stag324 wrote:See the bookies favour us more for promotion than a lot of fans on here


It's because the bookies aren't Stags fans.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby part time pete » Wed Feb 21, 2024 9:39 pm

HitchcocksShins wrote:Because I'm a Grade A lifeless saddo with a penchant for stats and a spare 20 minutes, I looked into the run ins of the Top 7 in the remaining 13-14 games. I'm fully aware it counts for absolutely nothing but still, I enjoyed looking into it and it's somewhat interesting.

Overall I'd say Stockport have the easiest run, only having to play 2 of the Top 7.
They also have to play current 18th, 19th, 21st, 23rd, 24th

We've got Wrexham (3rd), MK Dons (5th) twice, Barrow (6th) final day, hopefully all wrapped up by then. Then mostly mid to lower table teams we should be beating.

Wrexhams run similar to ours, 4 vs Top 7 then lower table fodder

Crewe have to play 8 games against top 12, almost all of which chasing promotion/ play offs as it stands.
Barrow same.

Additionally, Forest Green... 6 of their remaining 14 games are against the current Top 5 (Wrexham twice).
They're really going to have a say in how it all plays out and if they stay up they will have earned it.


Here is a more pictorial guide. We seem to have a more difficult run in compared to our challengers.

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?l ... nd4&tid=10
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby TheMyTStags » Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:47 pm

part time pete wrote:
HitchcocksShins wrote:Because I'm a Grade A lifeless saddo with a penchant for stats and a spare 20 minutes, I looked into the run ins of the Top 7 in the remaining 13-14 games. I'm fully aware it counts for absolutely nothing but still, I enjoyed looking into it and it's somewhat interesting.

Overall I'd say Stockport have the easiest run, only having to play 2 of the Top 7.
They also have to play current 18th, 19th, 21st, 23rd, 24th

We've got Wrexham (3rd), MK Dons (5th) twice, Barrow (6th) final day, hopefully all wrapped up by then. Then mostly mid to lower table teams we should be beating.

Wrexhams run similar to ours, 4 vs Top 7 then lower table fodder

Crewe have to play 8 games against top 12, almost all of which chasing promotion/ play offs as it stands.
Barrow same.

Additionally, Forest Green... 6 of their remaining 14 games are against the current Top 5 (Wrexham twice).
They're really going to have a say in how it all plays out and if they stay up they will have earned it.


Here is a more pictorial guide. We seem to have a more difficult run in compared to our challengers.

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?l ... nd4&tid=10

Alarming as that initially looks, it's skewed heavily by us having to play Wrexham away. It's based on the PPG of teams we've left to play home or away. If you take Wrexham away out of it, it drops to 1.35
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby broomo » Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:48 pm

We basically need another couple of 3 game winning streaks plus ideally one or two more in isolation.

With 3 of the next 4 at home (admittedly against tough opposition) then we've got another 3 games in a row home spell where we play Accrington, Crawley and Forest Green which will be crucial.

If we come out the next 4 games with 7 or more points I'd be more than happy.

I certainly wouldn't back against us at this stage.

It's getting to be exciting and nerve wracking in equal measure.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby ParisStag » Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:32 am

Agree that home games will be crucial now. Seems like we have got our mojo back at Field Mill so hopefully we can be more dominant at home, although I think teams will set up even more cautiously after the 9-2
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby young vanish » Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:06 am

part time pete wrote:
Here is a more pictorial guide. We seem to have a more difficult run in compared to our challengers.

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?l ... nd4&tid=10



Given that Stags do well against the better teams and can often falter when playing lower placed opponents. I'll take that.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Showaddywaddy » Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:18 am

broomo wrote:We basically need another couple of 3 game winning streaks plus ideally one or two more in isolation.

With 3 of the next 4 at home (admittedly against tough opposition) then we've got another 3 games in a row home spell where we play Accrington, Crawley and Forest Green which will be crucial.

If we come out the next 4 games with 7 or more points I'd be more than happy.

I certainly wouldn't back against us at this stage.

It's getting to be exciting and nerve wracking in equal measure.


I’m just not getting the usual nervous vibes this time Broomo, even after the slip up at Walsall. I’ve never been so convinced we are going to cross the finish line comfortably. I think the current top three will be the top three at the end of the season and the only thing that might go to the wire is in what order they will finish. I honestly believe we are going up as Champions though.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby arsene wengers coat » Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:42 pm

broomo wrote:We basically need another couple of 3 game winning streaks plus ideally one or two more in isolation.

With 3 of the next 4 at home (admittedly against tough opposition) then we've got another 3 games in a row home spell where we play Accrington, Crawley and Forest Green which will be crucial.

If we come out the next 4 games with 7 or more points I'd be more than happy.

I certainly wouldn't back against us at this stage.

It's getting to be exciting and nerve wracking in equal measure.


Yes 8 wins should definitely do it. I think a points haul of 23 between now and the end of the season could do it. Our GD is very good.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby M E » Fri Feb 23, 2024 12:52 am

Showaddywaddy wrote:
broomo wrote:We basically need another couple of 3 game winning streaks plus ideally one or two more in isolation.

With 3 of the next 4 at home (admittedly against tough opposition) then we've got another 3 games in a row home spell where we play Accrington, Crawley and Forest Green which will be crucial.

If we come out the next 4 games with 7 or more points I'd be more than happy.

I certainly wouldn't back against us at this stage.

It's getting to be exciting and nerve wracking in equal measure.


I’m just not getting the usual nervous vibes this time Broomo, even after the slip up at Walsall. I’ve never been so convinced we are going to cross the finish line comfortably. I think the current top three will be the top three at the end of the season and the only thing that might go to the wire is in what order they will finish. I honestly believe we are going up as Champions though.

Wish I had your confidence mate, I have faith in the team and the management but like you I have seen us slip up so many times that I can’t let myself get carried away, the games I’m nervous about we tend to win and the games I’m confident about we seem to slip up.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Conker » Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:13 am

3 points tomorrow would settle my nerves massively. A bounce back from defeat is always important.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Newhall1 » Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:00 am

We are all starting to get a little nervous - This is where I think our points might come from - head rather than heart.

Salford(H) - 3 points
Newport (A) - 1 point
MK Dons (H) -1 point
Swindon (H) - 3 points
Tranmere(A) - 0 points
Bradford(A) 0 points
Colchester(H) -3 points
Wrexham(A) -1 point
Accrington (H) - 1 point
Crawley (H) -3 points
FGR (H) - 3 points
MK Dons (A) 0 points
Gillingham (H) -3 points
Barrow(A) -1 point

Total - 23 points - Will it be enough?
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Captain Cunno » Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:06 am

Salford(H) - 1 points
Newport (A) - 0 point
MK Dons (H) -1 points
Swindon (H) - 3 points
Tranmere(A) - 0 points
Bradford(A) 0 points
Colchester(H) -3 points
Wrexham(A) -1 point
Accrington (H) - 3 points
Crawley (H) -3 points
FGR (H) - 3 points
MK Dons (A) 0 points
Gillingham (H) -3 points
Barrow(A) -3 point


I get 24 points
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby BH_Stag » Fri Feb 23, 2024 11:20 am

Captain Cunno wrote:Salford(H) - 1 points
Newport (A) - 0 point
MK Dons (H) -1 points
Swindon (H) - 3 points
Tranmere(A) - 0 points
Bradford(A) 0 points
Colchester(H) -3 points
Wrexham(A) -1 point
Accrington (H) - 3 points
Crawley (H) -3 points
FGR (H) - 3 points
MK Dons (A) 0 points
Gillingham (H) -3 points
Barrow(A) -3 point


I get 24 points


5 points from the next 6 games would cause far too much stress for my liking :lol:

Yesterday I was having a look at the games in packs of 3.

Walsall, Salford, Newport
- need to find a win, 3 points

MK, Swindon, Tranmere
- find 4 points

Bradford, Colchester, Wrexham
- find 4 points

Accrington, Crawley, FGR all at home
- find 7 points

MK, Gills, Barrow
- find 4 points

Takes you to 82 points. Without doing anything too special. 22 points out of 42

- Crewe would need 25 points out of 39 to overtake us due to us having a better GD. Achievable.
- MK would need 28 points out of 39 to overtake us due to us having a better GD. Achievable but starting to become a tough ask.

I think there is a fair debate to be had about whether 82 points would be enough, and I’m not yet convinced it would be myself, but the above would give you a chance and when you look at it you wouldn’t need to be in scintillating form to achieve it. If we could get ahead of that projection we’d be laughing.

The upcoming game against MK at home is going to be massive, can’t afford to lose that one and if we manage to win it that’s going to be a massive blow to MK and Crewe as it’s our game in hand on them.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby mhs » Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:39 pm

I’m not sure I’m into this promotion malarkey any more. It’s really bloody stressful!
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby part time pete » Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:59 pm

So that 6W, 4D, 4D, that should be easily achievable.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby The One » Fri Feb 23, 2024 11:08 pm

part time pete wrote:So that 6W, 4D, 4D, that should be easily achievable.


Is that WD 4 D :D
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Martin Shaw » Fri Feb 23, 2024 11:26 pm

part time pete wrote:So that 6W, 4D, 4D, that should be easily achievable.

I don't think 82 points will be enough for top 3
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby 88BenM » Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:22 am

Newhall1 wrote:We are all starting to get a little nervous - This is where I think our points might come from - head rather than heart.

Salford(H) - 3 points
Newport (A) - 1 point
MK Dons (H) -1 point
Swindon (H) - 3 points
Tranmere(A) - 0 points
Bradford(A) 0 points
Colchester(H) -3 points
Wrexham(A) -1 point
Accrington (H) - 1 point
Crawley (H) -3 points
FGR (H) - 3 points
MK Dons (A) 0 points
Gillingham (H) -3 points
Barrow(A) -1 point

Total - 23 points - Will it be enough?


Don't think we will be promoted with all those deductions!
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Bradders » Sat Feb 24, 2024 8:08 am

Today could be a big step forward, if Notts can do us a favour against Crewe. Time to throw everything at Salford and gain 6 points on the main danger! They'd become 5 points behind, and potentially 8 with our game in hand. It could be that the 5th March is effectively promotion day, if we beat MK.
Although it's the Stags, and optimistic forecasts have never been known to go to plan...
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby part time pete » Sat Feb 24, 2024 10:54 am

The One wrote:
part time pete wrote:So that 6W, 4D, 4D, that should be easily achievable.


Is that WD 4 D :D


W6, D4, L4 :oops:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby ST4GS » Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:27 am

part time pete wrote:
The One wrote:
part time pete wrote:So that 6W, 4D, 4D, that should be easily achievable.


Is that WD 4 D :D


W6, D4, L4 :oops:
Going back to the first loss game we are W7 D4 and L4 at 1.67 ppg which is play off form. That form gets us to 83 points which is debatable to achieve top three. Next series of games seem tougher so it might go down to the last game.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Dan » Sun Feb 25, 2024 1:23 am

I can't see us getting beaten again this season.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3 ?

Postby Tawnystag » Sun Feb 25, 2024 5:40 am

DKD said yesterday he (they) have a points target of 82
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