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Can Stags finish in the TOP 7

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby spanishstag » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:56 pm

There,s a very good team in this division ,fortunately its us ,last night was a bugger but a local derby ,i know weve got two more but its away games we can do to notts and sheep what gimps did to us if we beat colchester on saturday i honestly think its gonna be the biggest 3 points of the season everybodys got big games coming up
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:41 pm

Assuming 86 points required to achieve automatic promotion (top 3)

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
35..........16........13......6........61

Required, for 86 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
11..........8........1........2.........25 :D
11..........7........4........0.........25

This season our PPG is 1.74 (currently on target to finish on 80 points = Play-offs)

We need to average 2.27 PPG in our last 11 games to get to 86 points.

In our last 11 games we've averaged 2.18 PPG :D

All to play for, need to get back to winning ways v Colchester

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby The One » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:21 pm

Thanks Kirky
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby PRL13 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:47 pm

We need to improve by 4% to make the automatics, then!
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:24 pm

Based on the statistics below, I've reduced the assumption on the points required to achieve automatic promotion (top 3) from 86 to 83.

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
36..........16........14......6........62

Required, for 83 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
10..........7........0........3.........21 :D
10..........6........3........1.........21

This season our PPG is 1.72 (currently on target to finish on 79 points = Play-offs)

We need to average 2.10 PPG in our last 10 games to get to 83 points.

In our last 10 games we've averaged 1.90 PPG

Based on each teams current PPG this is how the final table would be,

Accy..............91
Luton............88
Clownty........81
---------------------
Wycombe....80
Exeter..........80
STAGS..........79
Coventry......75

Based on each teams current points total and their remaining games being similar to their PPG over the last 10 games, this is how the final table would be,

Accy.............96
Luton...........84
Wycombe....83
---------------------
STAGS..........81
Exeter..........79
Clownty.......78
Coventry.....75

Disappointing to draw 3 home games on the trot, especially having took the lead in each game. If we'd won the 3 games we'd be 3 points from top of the league.

Clownty a massive massive game next week, come on you STAGS!

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:55 pm

Again this analysis is assuming we take an average of 4 pts from each team (where possible) over the course of the season.

Path was previously 87 points however now revised to 86 after the defeat at Swindon, and reduced to 84 points after the draw against Colchester. Our required result in brackets, followed by the actual result, impact and cumulative position.

***UPDATED***

Home vs.Cheltenham (W) (W) -+0pts (87 pts)
Morecambe vs. Away (D) (W) +2pts (89 pts)
Home vs.Barnet (W) (W) -+0pts (89 pts)
Swindon vs. Away (W) (L) -3pts (86 pts)
Home vs.Newport County (W) (W) -+0pts (86 pts)
Exeter vs. Away (W) (W) -+0pts (86 pts)
Home vs.Coventry (D) (D) -+0pts (86 pts)
Home vs.Lincoln City (D) (D) -+0pts (86 pts)
Home vs.Colchester (W) (D) -2pts (84 pts)
Notts County vs. Away (D)
Forest Green vs. Away (D)
Home vs.Accrington (W)
Luton vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Crewe (W)
Stevenage vs. Away (D)
Chesterfield vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Port Vale (D)
Yeovil vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Crawley (W)

6 wins and 4 draws will be tough to achieve, but we need something like this if we are to gain automatic promotion.

Need to stop the draws and get some wins.

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Bridgford Stag » Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:32 pm

Can't see us in the top 3....with what the Team offers I hate to say

No-one in our team would make a Div 2 Team of the season would they?. No talisman which shines?

:(

We have to believe in the Team spirit concept.

I think that's what I am banking on....
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Surfingstag1 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 5:28 pm

The team and management need our support!
OK we've had a few draws recently
but
The last 6 games of the season are definitely winnable
but
The next 4 games will determine our fate this season
but
We will only succeed with our unfailing support at those games and on line
Why not give unreserved support for everyone involved in MTC for the next 4 games and let's see where that takes us
COYS
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:51 pm

Stags v Opponents goals per time period

Minutes...Stags.v.Ops
0-10.............4..........4..
11-20..........2...........2..
21-30..........7...........2..
31-40..........5...........4..
41-50..........5...........2..
51-60.........10..........5..
61-70..........9...........5..
71-80..........5...........2..
81-90..........8..........11. :(

1st half......21........13.
2nd half.....34.........24.

One stat which would be good to break on Saturday is we've not scored an away goal in the first 20 minutes ;)

The only time period we lose is the last 10 minutes, Notts Co last 10 minute stats are, for 14, against 7

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:41 pm

Assuming the points required to achieve automatic promotion (top 3) is 83.

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
37..........16........15......6........63

Required, for 83 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
.9...........6........2........1.........20

This season our PPG is 1.70 (currently on target to finish on 78 points = Play-offs)

We need to average 2.22 PPG in our last 9 games to get to 83 points.

In our last 9 games we've averaged 1.77 PPG

Forest Green..........A....WIN....................
Accy...................H................Draw...........
Luton.......................A.....................Lose
Crewe................H..........WIN..................
Stevenage...............A....WIN..................
Spireites..................A...........Draw..........
Port Vale..........H...........WIN...................
Yeovil.......................A....WIN...................
Crawley...........H............WIN...................

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby I am Spartacus » Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:59 pm

In short No.

County won’t either as I can see Coventry pinching the third automatic spot.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby bellwhiff » Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:09 pm

I am Spartacus wrote:In short No.

County won’t either as I can see Coventry pinching the third automatic spot.


That’s the spirit.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby bobbystagsfan » Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:10 pm

I think we can, despite the underwhelming performances since DF has joined.

if we somehow beat accy and Luton then I say yes! I'd still be happy with play offs, it's a nice change from a mid table mediocrity season
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby I am Spartacus » Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:20 pm

bellwhiff wrote:
I am Spartacus wrote:In short No.

County won’t either as I can see Coventry pinching the third automatic spot.


That’s the spirit.


Belly - I think the number of points we have repeatedly dropped in drawing games will be our undoing.

The thread is ‘Can Stags finish in the TOP 3’ and asks for opinions about our final finishing position which I did.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby bellwhiff » Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:51 pm

I agree that we’ve dropped points. I think it’s down to the fact that they’re top teams we’ve played against but the big issue is the massive disruption caused by the money grabbing Scottish porker.

I think we will settle under the new manager.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:04 pm

Mathematically possible so yes, we've had 4 1-1 draws on the bounce yet are STILL only 3 points off the top 3.

Next week at Forest Green is must win if we are to do it though.

9 games left two of which are against top 10 teams. Win 7 of the 9 thats 21 points and gets us to 84 points.

Anything from Accy (we're their next match) or Luton is a bonus.

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby tillydog123 » Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:25 am

We are slowly being caught up by a number of clubs the 4 draws will ruin the top 3 chance I think if we had won one of them would have made a bit of a difference
We do seem slightly on the decline plays offs no good to us but might be only way
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby MansfieldMick » Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:07 am

I still believe we can go up, next 3 games will decide IMO, got to beat FGR then 4 points over easter will be a good return and the run in after that leaves it in our hands. Still a few twists and turns to go yet, but still confident.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby GranbyStag » Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:07 pm

Agreed , 3pts a must at FOR then we can see how we stack up against Acct Stanley.... that should tell us a great deal. My biggest worry , Stags v Swindon in playoffs !
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Vice President » Sun Mar 18, 2018 3:04 pm

GranbyStag wrote:Agreed , 3pts a must at FOR then we can see how we stack up against Acct Stanley.... that should tell us a great deal. My biggest worry , Stags v Swindon in playoffs !


Stags v Notts Co. or Lincoln would also be a big worry. But then Coventry/Exeter/Wycombe wouldn't be great either!
The playoffs would be a nightmare for whoever is involved!
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Sun Mar 18, 2018 3:23 pm

Play-offs would be a nightmare for any team, we all know its a lottery.

But we should not forget we have taken 4 pts from Wycombe, Notts, Coventry, Lincoln, Exeter, Carlise and Newport they will equally fear us.

The only teams in the top 11 we haven't are Swindon and Accy. We could even take 4 from Luton but is a big ask.

We need to up our game against the perceived weaker teams in the run in.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby tillydog123 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:29 am

You can almost see Lincoln in play offs with Ollie nicking in again to foil us for another league 2 campaign.
The change of manager (and not blaming Fliflop) the 4 points from 12 has really changed the mechanics and dynamics of the promotion push in my view and I think plays offs it is likely to be and we are not good at those.
I am a bit doom and gloom and sorry for that but see another League 2 challenge coming up I think we will fall just short.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby PRL13 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:35 am

That late goal may have galvanised the players. let`s see them produce the goods. They could win all of the remaining games.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Amberheart » Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:13 pm

I still believe we can do it , but maybe the Mansfield Town way lose at FGR but beat Accy & Looouun ! Up the Stags !
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Birminghamstag10 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:46 pm

If we're still within touching distance after the Luton game, i.e. 3/4 points off, I think we will make top 3.
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