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Can Stags finish in the TOP 7

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Marky Mark » Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:10 pm

halifaxstag wrote:I don’t think it will be quite as high as 86 with teams taking points off each other.
Wycombe have the easiest run in of future opponents at the moment, while Luton, Accy and County have about the same
http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... nd4&tid=10
We have very similar average to Accrington at the moment but all their difficult opponents (on paper) come as a run at the end of the season whereas ours are spread more evenly across the fixtures. No game will be easy as Accy have seen today at Barnet but I would prefer our set of fixtures to theirs.

N.B. The future opponents average doesn’t take into account home or away difficulty, just the average points over the season.


I think your NB is wrong, it does take into account the home and away form - so that table says that we have the hardest run in of any team down to Crawley in 9th place, although there's not a great deal in it as you say.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby halifaxstag » Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:06 am

Marky Mark wrote:
halifaxstag wrote:I don’t think it will be quite as high as 86 with teams taking points off each other.
Wycombe have the easiest run in of future opponents at the moment, while Luton, Accy and County have about the same
http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... nd4&tid=10
We have very similar average to Accrington at the moment but all their difficult opponents (on paper) come as a run at the end of the season whereas ours are spread more evenly across the fixtures. No game will be easy as Accy have seen today at Barnet but I would prefer our set of fixtures to theirs.

N.B. The future opponents average doesn’t take into account home or away difficulty, just the average points over the season.


I think your NB is wrong, it does take into account the home and away form - so that table says that we have the hardest run in of any team down to Crawley in 9th place, although there's not a great deal in it as you say.


My point with the NB was about where we play them. E.g. Accrington’s away form is 1.58 points per game and 2.19 at home whereas the figure that will have been used is probably their average of 1.88
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby BH_Stag » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:11 am

I too thought 86 seemed high (which it is) but having guessed at likely results on the below link I now do agree that it's going to be around the 85/86 mark to go up.

https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?Competition=4
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby stag324 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:46 am

this is mine
Home

Forecast League Two Table

Here's your final league table which has been generated from all the results which you have supplied. Results which you did not supply have been forecast by the calculator based partly upon recent form, although note that there is also a random factor built in to simulate the unpredictable nature of our sport.


Pos

Team

1 Luton 46 +54 101
2 Mansfield 46 +34 91
3 Swindon 46 +18 87
4 Wycombe 46 +23 86
5 Accrington Stanley 46 +25 85
6 Coventry 46 +24 84
7 Exeter 46 +16 84
8 Lincoln City 46 +23 83
9 Notts County 46 +21 79
10 Crawley Town 46 +1 69
11 Cambridge Utd 46 -13 59
12 Carlisle 46 -2 58
13 Colchester 46 -6 56
14 Newport County 46 -11 55
15 Port Vale 46 -10 53
16 Stevenage 46 -13 49
17 Forest Green 46 -19 48
18 Yeovil 46 -16 46
19 Cheltenham 46 -13 45
20 Grimsby 46 -29 45
21 Morecambe 46 -20 41
22 Barnet 46 -22 39
23 Crewe 46 -30 38
24 Chesterfield 46 -35 38
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby ST4GS » Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:01 am

This is my cautious one with glass half empty:

1 Luton 46 +51 98
2 Wycombe 46 +30 91
3 Accrington Stanley 46 +27 88
4 Exeter 46 +16 84
5 Mansfield 46 +25 82
6 Lincoln City 46 +17 77
7 Swindon 46 +10 77
8 Coventry 46 +15 74
9 Notts County 46 +17 72
10 Newport County 46 +4 66
11 Crawley Town 46 -3 63
12 Cambridge Utd 46 -10 62
13 Colchester 46 -5 57
14 Carlisle 46 -3 56
15 Forest Green 46 -15 54
16 Stevenage 46 -11 51
17 Cheltenham 46 -13 48
18 Yeovil 46 -15 47
19 Port Vale 46 -18 47
20 Grimsby 46 -29 47
21 Morecambe 46 -17 45
22 Crewe 46 -21 45
23 Chesterfield 46 -30 41
24 Barnet 46 -22 39
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby tillydog123 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:24 pm

Depends how Wycombe and Accrington go mainly, if they keep winning and we lose just one its a bigger gap immediately
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Captain Cunno » Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:36 pm

Did it selecting no teams and we were 3rd and spireites 7 points adrift.

Did a very pessimistic one and we finished 6th and chesterfield 2nd bottom and down by a point.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Amber Andy » Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:51 pm

tillydog123 wrote:Depends how Wycombe and Accrington go mainly, if they keep winning and we lose just one its a bigger gap immediately

I think our hope is that Accy get injuries or suspension to their first eleven. Our squad is much stronger. However, don't rule out those a few points below us. It's going to be exciting and we need to remain positive, because we are bound to have a few hiccups on the way.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby stag324 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:57 pm

my hope is our experience both with the players and the management team will see us finish in the top 3.

I just cannot see Accrington staying the distance based purely on gut feel.

The chesterfield & county games will be massive and depending on how these goes will not only effect the morale of the team but also the fans.

Wins in both will see the fans believe and will add an extra 500-1000 on the gate in my eyes
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:55 pm

Assuming 86 points required to achieve automatic promotion (top 3)

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
34..........16........12......6........60

Required, for 86 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
12..........8........2........2.........26 :D
12..........7........5........0.........26

Steve Evans PPG
Last season 1.56
This season 1.76 (currently on target to finish on 81 points = Play-offs)

We need to average 2.16 PPG in our last 12 games to get to 86 points.

In our last 12 games we've averaged 2.25 PPG :D

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Sun Feb 25, 2018 9:28 am

Again this analysis is assuming we take an average of 4 pts from each team (where possible) over the course of the season.

Path was previously 87 points however now revised to 86 after the defeat at Swindon. Our required result in brackets, followed by the actual result, impact and cumulative position.

***UPDATED***

Home vs.Cheltenham (W) (W) -+0pts (87 pts)
Morecambe vs. Away (D) (W) +2pts (89 pts)
Home vs.Barnet (W) (W) -+0pts (89 pts)
Swindon vs. Away (W) (L) -3pts (86 pts)
Home vs.Newport County (W) (W) -+0pts (86 pts)
Exeter vs. Away (W) (W) -+0pts (86 pts)
Home vs.Coventry (D) (D) -+0pts (86 pts)
Stevenage vs. Away (D)
Home vs.Lincoln City (D)
Home vs.Colchester (W)
Notts County vs. Away (D)
Forest Green vs. Away (D)
Home vs.Accrington (W)
Luton vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Crewe (W)
Chesterfield vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Port Vale (D)
Yeovil vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Crawley (W)

7 wins and 5 draws will be tough to achieve, but we need something like this if we are to gain automatic promotion.

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:14 am

Number of top half table teams still to play, square brackets denotes how many in March.

Luton - 6 [3]
Accy - 8 [2] (last 7 games against top half)
Wyc - 5 [3]
Notts - 6 [2]
Mans - 6 [4]
Exe - 7 [3]
Swin - 5 [1]
Lin - 7 [3]
Cov - 5 [3]
Car - 5 [2]
Cra - 6 [2]
Col - 7 [2]

March is clearly another tough month but on the bright side gives us chances to take points off promotion rivals.

If we can keep within striking distance of Accy (5pts) and then beat them on 30th March I predict we'll finish above them.

They won't win all seven of their last 7 games, the first of which is against us.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby stags4eva » Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:47 am

Our last 5 lool favourable if we can hang on in there
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Spiritater » Sun Feb 25, 2018 5:59 pm

Stags 2002 wrote:Number of top half table teams still to play, square brackets denotes how many in March.

Luton - 6 [3]
Accy - 8 [2] (last 7 games against top half)
Wyc - 5 [3]
Notts - 6 [2]
Mans - 6 [4]
Exe - 7 [3]
Swin - 5 [1]
Lin - 7 [3]
Cov - 5 [3]
Car - 5 [2]
Cra - 6 [2]
Col - 7 [2]

March is clearly another tough month but on the bright side gives us chances to take points off promotion rivals.

If we can keep within striking distance of Accy (5pts) and then beat them on 30th March I predict we'll finish above them.

They won't win all seven of their last 7 games, the first of which is against us.

They're bound to win that one they always seem to do us.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:08 pm

Again this analysis is assuming we take an average of 4 pts from each team (where possible) over the course of the season.

Path was previously 87 points however now revised to 86 after the defeat at Swindon. Our required result in brackets, followed by the actual result, impact and cumulative position.

***UPDATED***

Home vs.Cheltenham (W) (W) -+0pts (87 pts)
Morecambe vs. Away (D) (W) +2pts (89 pts)
Home vs.Barnet (W) (W) -+0pts (89 pts)
Swindon vs. Away (W) (L) -3pts (86 pts)
Home vs.Newport County (W) (W) -+0pts (86 pts)
Exeter vs. Away (W) (W) -+0pts (86 pts)
Home vs.Coventry (D) (D) -+0pts (86 pts)
Home vs.Lincoln City (D) (D) -+0pts (86 pts)
Home vs.Colchester (W)
Notts County vs. Away (D)
Forest Green vs. Away (D)
Home vs.Accrington (W)
Luton vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Crewe (W)
Stevenage vs. Away (D)
Chesterfield vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Port Vale (D)
Yeovil vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Crawley (W)

7 wins and 4 draws will be tough to achieve, but we need something like this if we are to gain automatic promotion.

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby bigalstag » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:00 am

The answer is no.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Vice President » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:10 am

bigalstag wrote:The answer is no.


I am afraid I agree.
The frustrating thing is that we have thrown away so many leads & points ..... and that's precisely why the writing is on the wall: We draw too many games to finish in the top 3 (which is why we have hardly been in the top 3 all season).
We can still do it - If Flitcroft can wave a magic wand. But I am not expecting us to finish in the top three - Even less so now that Evans has gone.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby The One » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:15 am

Yes. Plenty of football left and we have to play Clownty and Accy
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby bellwhiff » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:07 pm

Doom and gloom.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby bobbystagsfan » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:10 pm

of course we can, anything can happen! if we beat county, Accrington and Luton (a big ask) then we definitely can! need a win this Saturday against Colchester first
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby bellwhiff » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:52 pm

bigalstag wrote:The answer is no.


Aren’t we one point off of third place ?
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby bobbystagsfan » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:22 pm

bellwhiff wrote:
bigalstag wrote:The answer is no.


Aren’t we one point off of third place ?


with a game in hand too
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby ST4GS » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:04 pm

Vice President wrote:
bigalstag wrote:The answer is no.


I am afraid I agree.
The frustrating thing is that we have thrown away so many leads & points ..... and that's precisely why the writing is on the wall: We draw too many games to finish in the top 3 (which is why we have hardly been in the top 3 all season).
We can still do it - If Flitcroft can wave a magic wand. But I am not expecting us to finish in the top three - Even less so now that Evans has gone.

It is a pity we did not achieve four more points from the last two home games (that would have been utopia)
BUT... don't forget last month we got in the habit of pinching late wins so we can't be too despondent.
It is all to play for . We CAN get in the top three for sure but we might have to settle for the play-offs, strap yourself in.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Birminghamstag10 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:34 pm

bobbystagsfan wrote:
bellwhiff wrote:
bigalstag wrote:The answer is no.


Aren’t we one point off of third place ?


with a game in hand too


This. How anyone can say it can't be done based on the current table is beyond me. We drew 1-1 in a local derby. The only team with any metal right now is Accy and if they carry on they will be champions. I do think 3rd place is really the only one of real chance of being up for grabs - County can't show their teeth on a consistent basis and Wycombe have lost their last 2 home games. Exeter post a threat but I do think 3rd place is well and truly up for grabs from those teams who are not convincing week in, week out such as us and those in and around us.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby cassellswasmagic » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:39 pm

Why can’t it be done fgs there isn’t a good team in this division. We can beat anyone and we have a game in hand too!!!
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