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Can Stags finish in the TOP 7

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby part time pete » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:57 am

Spiritater wrote:I thought we'd already played Wycombe twice n taken 4 points off em.


I think you have misunderstood ‘tater, what the numbers mean.
Each team in the division is given how many points they have scored per game at present.

Then each team opponents average for the rest of the season is worked out.

So the stags 16 opponents to play have averaged 1.47 pts per game, whereas everyone else opponents have average less so we have the toughest run in.

After this month I suspect the numbers will have changed and our opponents will have tougher fixtures than us.
Can we play Accrington Stanley every week.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Jamie » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:05 am

Thanks for the explanation pete. I too was struggling with that last stat.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Spiritater » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:06 am

It's early :oops:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:27 pm

I'm assuming 81 points will achieve automatic promotion (top 3)

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
31..........14........11......6........53

Required, for 81 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
15..........9........1........5.........28
15..........8........4........3.........28 :D
15..........7........7........1.........28

Steve Evans PPG
Last season 1.56
This season 1.71 (currently on target to finish on 78 points = Play-offs)
We need to average 1.86 PPG in our last 15 games to get to 81 points.

First 16 games this season = 1.37 PPG
Last 15 games this season = 2.06 PPG :D (If this continued for the next 15 games we'd finish with 84 points)

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:31 am

Again this analysis is assuming we take an average of 4 pts from each team (where possible) over the course of the season.

Path was previously 87 points however now revised to 86 after the defeat at Swindon. Our required result in brackets, followed by the actual result, impact and cumulative position.

Home vs.Cheltenham (W) (W) -+0pts (87 pts)
Morecambe vs. Away (D) (W) +2pts (89 pts)
Home vs.Barnet (W) (W) -+0pts (89 pts)
Swindon vs. Away (W) (L) -3pts (86 pts)
Home vs.Newport County (W)
Exeter vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Coventry (D)
Stevenage vs. Away (D)
Home vs.Lincoln City (D)
Home vs.Colchester (W)
Notts County vs. Away (D)
Forest Green vs. Away (D)
Home vs.Accrington (W)
Luton vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Crewe (W)
Chesterfield vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Port Vale (D)
Yeovil vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Crawley (W)

9 wins and 6 draws will be tough to achieve, but we need something like this if we are to gain automatic promotion.

:coys:[/quote]
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Kernow » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:09 am

Unlikely, drawing too many games.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby tillydog123 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:56 am

Is going to be tough and u can see how one defeat this wknd has deflated a few already and a draw on Tuesday would mean meltdown, play offs for me is a distinct possibility rather than top 3 and we all know what a lottery that is
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby lifestags » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:44 am

Ive got us down with 9 wins (the last 5 games of the season are winnable) 2 losses (Exeter and Luton) and 3 draws (County, Accrington, Stevenage)
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby ST4GS » Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:06 pm

lifestags wrote:Ive got us down with 9 wins (the last 5 games of the season are winnable) 2 losses (Exeter and Luton) and 3 draws (County, Accrington, Stevenage)

Very ambitious and I would sign up for this now (although you have only included 14 games instead of 15)
If we win 9, draw 3 and lose 3 we should go up automatically.
Due to our remaining fixtures I think we will probably win either 6 or 7 games maximum (matching our current win % now) and then face the lottery of the play-offs. Hope to be proved wrong though.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:13 pm

FourFourTwo League 2 prediction, back in the summer 2017

TOP 4
Mansfield
Luton
Wycombe
Accrington

Current Table.......PTS
Luton ....................64
Accrington............58
Wycombe..............56
Notts Co................54
Swindon................54
STAGS....................53

Current FORM....PTS....(10 games)
Crawley................24
Wycombe............22
Accrington..........21
STAGS..................21
Luton...................19

Average PPG of remaining opponents
STAGS................1.47
Luton.................1.34
Wycombe..........1.33
Accrington........1.31

The FourFourTwo top 4 prediction is looking quite good, although not necessarily in the right order

Based on the stats above the current top 3 are going to take some moving

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:07 pm

Creepys next few games will show if they are this seasons Exeter and in with a play-off shout.

Luton
Lincoln
Forest Green
Wycombe
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:29 pm

I'm assuming 81 points will achieve automatic promotion (top 3)

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
32..........15........11......6........56

Required, for 81 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
14..........8........1........5.........25
14..........7........4........3.........25 :D
14..........6........7........1.........25

Steve Evans PPG
Last season 1.56
This season 1.75 (currently on target to finish on 80 points = Play-offs)
We need to average 1.79 PPG in our last 14 games to get to 81 points.

Brilliant performance v Newport, a bit surprised at the low attendance, less than 3,000 when we're in a play-off place aiming to get in the top 3.

Unless Accy Stanley or Wycombe suffer a significant loss of form it's looking as the 4th place team may have more than 81 points, ironically the last 2 teams to gain more than 81 points but finish 4th was Accy Stanley & Wycombe (list below)

......................4th
2016/17........77
2015/16........85 Accy Stanley
2014/15........84 Wycombe
2013/14........76
2012/13........76
2011/12........83 Southend
2010/11........79
2009/10........73
2008/09........78
2007/08........82 Stockport

:coys:
Last edited by KirkbyStag2 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby The One » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:31 pm

Thanks Kirkby
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby part time pete » Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:06 am

Are you saying we should be aiming for 86 pts then.
Can we play Accrington Stanley every week.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:00 am

part time pete wrote:Are you saying we should be aiming for 86 pts then.


To be safe we should be targeting 86pts until the situation becomes clear.

Ironically ties in with the pathway ive pulled together further up the page averaging 4pts gained from each team where possible.

Alternatively:

We have so far played 9 teams twice.

Averaged 6 points against 1 team
Averaged 4 points against 6 teams
Averaged 3 points against 1 team
Averaged 0 points against 1 team

Total points of 33 from the teams we've played twice averaging at 3.67 points per team so far. Multiple this by 23 teams gives 84 points.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby part time pete » Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:21 am

To get 86 pts we need eight wins and six draws

As you say, draw against the six teams we have already beat and win against the eight teams we have failed to beat this season yet.
Can we play Accrington Stanley every week.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby DogsDoDahs » Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:27 am

We will finish second in the league behind Luton. Just believe OK!!!!!!

:coys:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Spiritater » Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:17 am

KirkbyStag2 wrote:I'm assuming 81 points will achieve automatic promotion (top 3)

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
32..........15........11......6........56

Required, for 81 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
14..........8........1........5.........25
14..........7........4........3.........25 :D
14..........6........7........1.........25

Steve Evans PPG
Last season 1.56
This season 1.75 (currently on target to finish on 80 points = Play-offs)
We need to average 1.79 PPG in our last 14 games to get to 81 points.

Brilliant performance v Newport, a bit surprised at the low attendance, less than 3,000 when we're in a play-off place aiming to get in the top 3.


Unless Accy Stanley or Wycombe suffer a significant loss of form it's looking as the 4th place team may have more than 81 points, ironically the last 2 teams to gain more than 81 points but finish 4th was Accy Stanley & Wycombe (list below)

......................4th
2016/17........77
2015/16........85 Accy Stanley
2014/15........84 Wycombe
2013/14........76
2012/13........76
2011/12........83 Southend
2010/11........79
2009/10........73
2008/09........78
2007/08........82 Stockport

:coys:


Why? It's Mansfield, plastic Prem fans abound. We'll struggle if we go up and the town stays in t'pub and watches Sky all afternoon.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby daddycool » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:57 am

Rochdale have been up yrs with half of our support ,look at Burton , Have faith
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby The One » Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:16 am

And Accy with just over a thousand per game !!!
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby bellwhiff » Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:43 pm

Spiritater wrote:
KirkbyStag2 wrote:I'm assuming 81 points will achieve automatic promotion (top 3)

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
32..........15........11......6........56

Required, for 81 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
14..........8........1........5.........25
14..........7........4........3.........25 :D
14..........6........7........1.........25

Steve Evans PPG
Last season 1.56
This season 1.75 (currently on target to finish on 80 points = Play-offs)
We need to average 1.79 PPG in our last 14 games to get to 81 points.

Brilliant performance v Newport, a bit surprised at the low attendance, less than 3,000 when we're in a play-off place aiming to get in the top 3.


Unless Accy Stanley or Wycombe suffer a significant loss of form it's looking as the 4th place team may have more than 81 points, ironically the last 2 teams to gain more than 81 points but finish 4th was Accy Stanley & Wycombe (list below)

......................4th
2016/17........77
2015/16........85 Accy Stanley
2014/15........84 Wycombe
2013/14........76
2012/13........76
2011/12........83 Southend
2010/11........79
2009/10........73
2008/09........78
2007/08........82 Stockport

:coys:


Why? It's Mansfield, plastic Prem fans abound. We'll struggle if we go up and the town stays in t'pub and watches Sky all afternoon.


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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Spiritater » Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:54 pm

bellwhiff wrote:
Spiritater wrote:
KirkbyStag2 wrote:I'm assuming 81 points will achieve automatic promotion (top 3)

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
32..........15........11......6........56

Required, for 81 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
14..........8........1........5.........25
14..........7........4........3.........25 :D
14..........6........7........1.........25

Steve Evans PPG
Last season 1.56
This season 1.75 (currently on target to finish on 80 points = Play-offs)
We need to average 1.79 PPG in our last 14 games to get to 81 points.

Brilliant performance v Newport, a bit surprised at the low attendance, less than 3,000 when we're in a play-off place aiming to get in the top 3.


Unless Accy Stanley or Wycombe suffer a significant loss of form it's looking as the 4th place team may have more than 81 points, ironically the last 2 teams to gain more than 81 points but finish 4th was Accy Stanley & Wycombe (list below)

......................4th
2016/17........77
2015/16........85 Accy Stanley
2014/15........84 Wycombe
2013/14........76
2012/13........76
2011/12........83 Southend
2010/11........79
2009/10........73
2008/09........78
2007/08........82 Stockport

:coys:


Why? It's Mansfield, plastic Prem fans abound. We'll struggle if we go up and the town stays in t'pub and watches Sky all afternoon.


Sad sack.


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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:32 pm

Based on Wycombe & Accy Stanley's excellent form (similar to Stags), I'm increasing the points assumption to achieve automatic promotion (top 3) from 81 to a massive 86 points (Pompey won the title last season with 87 points)

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
33..........16........11......6........59

Required, for 86 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
13..........9........0........4.........27
13..........8........3........2.........27 :D
13..........7........6........0.........27

Steve Evans PPG
Last season 1.56
This season 1.79 (currently on target to finish on 82 points = Play-offs)

We need to average 2.07 PPG in our last 13 games to get to 86 points.

In our last 13 games we've averaged 2.07 PPG

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby bex » Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:34 pm

Spiritater wrote:
KirkbyStag2 wrote:I'm assuming 81 points will achieve automatic promotion (top 3)

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
32..........15........11......6........56

Required, for 81 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
14..........8........1........5.........25
14..........7........4........3.........25 :D
14..........6........7........1.........25

Steve Evans PPG
Last season 1.56
This season 1.75 (currently on target to finish on 80 points = Play-offs)
We need to average 1.79 PPG in our last 14 games to get to 81 points.

Brilliant performance v Newport, a bit surprised at the low attendance, less than 3,000 when we're in a play-off place aiming to get in the top 3.


Unless Accy Stanley or Wycombe suffer a significant loss of form it's looking as the 4th place team may have more than 81 points, ironically the last 2 teams to gain more than 81 points but finish 4th was Accy Stanley & Wycombe (list below)

......................4th
2016/17........77
2015/16........85 Accy Stanley
2014/15........84 Wycombe
2013/14........76
2012/13........76
2011/12........83 Southend
2010/11........79
2009/10........73
2008/09........78
2007/08........82 Stockport

:coys:


Why? It's Mansfield, plastic Prem fans abound. We'll struggle if we go up and the town stays in t'pub and watches Sky all afternoon.


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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby halifaxstag » Sat Feb 17, 2018 9:32 pm

I don’t think it will be quite as high as 86 with teams taking points off each other.
Wycombe have the easiest run in of future opponents at the moment, while Luton, Accy and County have about the same
http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... nd4&tid=10
We have very similar average to Accrington at the moment but all their difficult opponents (on paper) come as a run at the end of the season whereas ours are spread more evenly across the fixtures. No game will be easy as Accy have seen today at Barnet but I would prefer our set of fixtures to theirs.

N.B. The future opponents average doesn’t take into account home or away difficulty, just the average points over the season.
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