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Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby daddycool » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:36 am

Even the bookies thought we were certs at the beginning of the season,what they place there knowledge on?. Evans and his signings I would think. Most fans would agree his downfall so far has been juggling the team about every game because the players the bookies thought would get us up are still here.
I think County,luton,Lincoln and Wycombe already make up 4 of the final top seven so we are in a race for the other three places .
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby gazza1988 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:30 pm

Thing is though we've had managers who have tried keeping consistency in his sides, and just gets labelled as someone who sticks square pegs in round holes.

Where's the line? at what point do we decide hes changing it for the sake of change?
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby convertmel » Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:02 am

gazza1988 wrote:Thing is though we've had managers who have tried keeping consistency in his sides, and just gets labelled as someone who sticks square pegs in round holes.

Where's the line? at what point do we decide hes changing it for the sake of change?

We won't have to ,the results will show that I think, one way or another.
Studied a lot of managers in a lot of leagues over my long lifetime,
I think should he fail here ( god I hope not ) he's probably only got another four or five chances as an in-demand manager .
i'm with the 99%, how about you?
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:50 pm

I'm assuming 81 points will achieve automatic promotion (top 3)

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
25..........10........10......5........40

Required, for 81 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
21.........13.......2........6.........41
21.........12.......5........4.........41 :D
21.........11.......8........2.........41
21.........10......11.......0.........41

We've currently got 1.60 points per game, where as we need 1.76 PPG over 46 games, therefore we now need 1.95 PPG for the remaining 21 games

Great result today, one of the best this season :D

Steve Evans PPG
Last season 1.56
This season 1.60

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby yellowstagsfan » Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:29 pm

YES ! No question
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:29 pm

I'm assuming 81 points will achieve automatic promotion (top 3)

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
26..........11........10......5........43

Required, for 81 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
20.........12.......2........6.........38
20.........11.......5........4.........38 :D
20.........10.......8........2.........38
20..........9.......11.......0.........38

We've currently got 1.65 points per game, where as we need 1.76 PPG over 46 games, therefore we now need 1.90 PPG for the remaining 20 games

Very Good Christmas for Stags :D

Steve Evans PPG
Last season 1.56
This season 1.65 (currently on target to finish on 76 points = Play-Offs)

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby gazza1988 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:11 pm

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:46 pm

As it suggests all in good fun and plenty of football to be played yet.

However we can only hope 24th place is correct :lol:

I also think Accrington will start to fade for two reasons, fixtures starting to pile up (any bad weather puts them in doubt)

Also if the rumours about Kee going to Bristol Rovers are correct this will hurt them up front.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stoney » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:39 pm

Accrington fail towards the end of most seasons due to the fixture pile up that they inevitably get. They'll not make the play offs.

I still think Notts will fade away.

Luton
Mansfield
Coventry

The rest can battle it out between themselves.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby BoughtonStag71 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:39 pm

1 loooooooton
2 Coventry
3 Notts
----------------------
4 Wycombe
5 Stags
6 Swindon
7 Exeter

______________
23 Barnet
24 Sheep
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby halifaxstag » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:10 pm

Or try this...
https://thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php
Tried it 3 times with random results generation and Stags 4th each time
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby gazza1988 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:13 pm

Just did that. But had Chesterfield win every game (except against us obviously) and they finish 1 point behind us :lol: and again had them 3 points ahead of us.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby halifaxstag » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:27 pm

gazza1988 wrote:Just did that. But had Chesterfield win every game (except against us obviously) and they finish 1 point behind us :lol: and again had them 3 points ahead of us.

Does that mean we get to beat them in the playoffs too? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Oak Tree Stag » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:29 pm

Going to try and put a positive slant on this...........
Since we started playing the reverse fixtures and have now played 4 teams home & away, we have averaged 2 points per game

Grimsby H 3 points
Grimsby A 1 point
Wycombe H 1 point
Wycombe A 3 points
Carlisle H 3 points
Carlisle A 1 point
Cambridge H 3 points
Cambridge A 1 point

Now this does fall down next week when we play Cheltenham, but i hope you i hope you get the gist. Continue in this form and we could going places.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:40 pm

If the trend continues then it suggests 87 points.

23 teams x 4 average gives you 92 points, take 5 points away for the 5 defeats for which we can now only get a maximum 3 points against teams who beat us in the first half seasons fixtures.

Might be a good barometer to gauge progression against along with Kirbystags method.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby KirkbyStag2 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 7:33 pm

I'm assuming 81 points will achieve automatic promotion (top 3)

Current Table,

PLD........W........D.......L.......PTS
27..........11........11......5........44

Required, for 81 points total,

PLD.......W.......D.......L.........PTS
19.........12.......1........6.........37
19.........11.......4........4.........37 :D
19.........10.......7........2.........37
19..........9.......10.......0.........37

We've currently got 1.63 points per game, where as we need 1.76 PPG over 46 games, therefore we now need 1.95 PPG for the remaining 19 games

Steve Evans PPG
Last season 1.56
This season 1.63 (currently on target to finish on 75 points = Play-Offs)

If we won the next 3 games we would be on target for 81 points (assumed 3rd Place)
Cheltenham.........Home
Morecambe.........Away
Barnet..................Home

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Foxy » Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:04 pm

IF we'd won yesterday then we'd only be 8 points behind them. As it is it's 10. They carry on with results like yesterday and it wont be long before we go above them.

Top 3?

We can still be top!

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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:08 pm

Stags 2002 wrote:If the trend continues then it suggests 87 points.

23 teams x 4 average gives you 92 points, take 5 points away for the 5 defeats for which we can now only get a maximum 3 points against teams who beat us in the first half seasons fixtures.

Might be a good barometer to gauge progression against along with Kirbystags method.


Path to 87 points is as follows, our required result in brackets.

Home vs.Cheltenham (W)
Morecambe vs. Away (D)
Home vs.Barnet (W)
Swindon vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Newport County (W)
Exeter vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Coventry (D)
Stevenage vs. Away (D)
Home vs.Lincoln City (D)
Home vs.Colchester (W)
Notts County vs. Away (D)
Forest Green vs. Away (D)
Home vs.Accrington (W)
Luton vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Crewe (W)
Chesterfield vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Port Vale (D)
Yeovil vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Crawley (W)

Shows its all still to play for.

:coys:
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Vice President » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:22 pm

Stags 2002 wrote:
Stags 2002 wrote:If the trend continues then it suggests 87 points.

23 teams x 4 average gives you 92 points, take 5 points away for the 5 defeats for which we can now only get a maximum 3 points against teams who beat us in the first half seasons fixtures.

Might be a good barometer to gauge progression against along with Kirbystags method.


Path to 87 points is as follows, our required result in brackets.

Home vs.Cheltenham (W)
Morecambe vs. Away (D)
Home vs.Barnet (W)
Swindon vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Newport County (W)
Exeter vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Coventry (D)
Stevenage vs. Away (D)
Home vs.Lincoln City (D)
Home vs.Colchester (W)
Notts County vs. Away (D)
Forest Green vs. Away (D)
Home vs.Accrington (W)
Luton vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Crewe (W)
Chesterfield vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Port Vale (D)
Yeovil vs. Away (W)
Home vs.Crawley (W)

Shows its all still to play for.

:coys:


This forecast would assume that we won't lose a single game and we will win almost twice as many games than we will draw. Based on the season so far, that is not likely. I agree, that when you look at the games in isolation, we are capable of winning most of them - but I feel that we are too much of a 'draw specialist' to chalk up that many wins. It is still all to play for though. Absolutely! ;)
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby Stags 2002 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:30 pm

VP its just a road map assuming we take an average 4pts from every team we play this season, and a maximum 3 pts from the teams who've beaten us.

As you say doesn't account for any further losses - 19 games to go. So possibly just a single loss in there (based on current form :D )

Would likely be Luton away but you never know, in isolation as you mention its achievable just need to keep up the form and increase the win ratio.
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby bobbystagsfan » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:24 am

Stags 2002 wrote:VP its just a road map assuming we take an average 4pts from every team we play this season, and a maximum 3 pts from the teams who've beaten us.

As you say doesn't account for any further losses - 19 games to go. So possibly just a single loss in there (based on current form :D )

Would likely be Luton away but you never know, in isolation as you mention its achievable just need to keep up the form and increase the win ratio.



we will beat luton ;) mark my words
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Re: Can Stags finish in the TOP 3

Postby tillydog123 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:11 am

Away wins at Swindon Exeter and Luton with home win against Accy seem tough to me and even the Newport game a win might be a problem with their current form but thanks to the analysts for their work on this.
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